Michel Barnier had barely been appointed to Matignon when the visuals “CENSORSHIP of the Prime Minister” covered the X accounts (formerly Twitter) of the rebellious lieutenants. “By appointing Michel Barnier, the president refuses to respect popular sovereignty and the choice resulting from the ballot box”, mocks the leader of the deputies La France insoumise (LFI) Mathilde Panot. “Obsessed by immigration, voted against the decriminalization of homosexuality, opposes the sharing of wealth. Illegitimate. We censor Barnier”, adds the elected representative of Val-de-Marne Louis Boyard in reference to the vote “against” from the Savoie MP for the single article of a proposed law repealing the crime of homosexuality in 1981.
The same is true of their green allies. “In view of the direction of the coalition and the government led by Michel Barnier, who promotes and promises budgetary austerity, the destruction of public services and the non-raising of the legal retirement age, the Ecologist and Social Group will vote to censure the government led by Michel Barnier,” the Ecologist and Social group announced in a press release published early this afternoon on X.
A few minutes later, the pink house confirmed that its deputies would also vote for censure, considering that “Michel Barnier has neither political legitimacy nor republican legitimacy”. And the Socialist Party (PS) denounced an “extremely serious situation”. On X, the party leader Olivier Faure notably castigated a “democratic denial taken to its peak”, with “a Prime Minister from the party who came in 4th position and who did not even participate in the republican front”. And the First Secretary of the PS warned: “We are entering a regime crisis.”
The need for an absolute majority
But does the motion of censure signed by the deputies of the New Popular Front (NFP) even have a chance of bringing down the future government composed of Michel Barnier? For the moment, everything suggests that the answer is no. As a reminder, a motion of censure is an instrument available to deputies to overthrow an executive in office. But the success of the operation is subject to two conditions. The text must first be signed by at least 58 deputies to be put to the vote.
A first step that should not pose a problem, the Insoumis having obtained 72 seats on their own at the end of the second round of the early legislative elections. However, to be adopted, the motion of censure requires the support of the absolute majority of the National Assembly, i.e. at least 289 deputies. However, the ranks of the left-wing coalition are filled with only some 190 elected representatives.
Barnier’s future in the hands of the RN
Therefore, without the support of part of the right wing of the hemicycle, the motion of censure has no chance of succeeding. However, since Michel Barnier comes from the Republicans, he is almost certain to be knighted by his political family. The former LR group president and re-elected MP Olivier Marleix notably confirmed “his total confidence in Michel Barnier”, a “statesman”, “respectful of all”. The former MEP also received congratulations from the leader of the Republican Right Laurent Wauquiez who praised “a man of great quality who has all the assets to succeed in this difficult mission entrusted to him”.
Then there are the elected representatives of the RN, who by joining their voices to those of the NFP, could lead to the adoption of the motion of censure. Michel Barnier would therefore be forced to submit the resignation of his government to the President of the Republic who would then be obliged to appoint a new head of government. A scenario which, less than three weeks before the examination of the Budget, would be similar to an unprecedented political-institutional crisis under the Fifth Republic. This is why Emmanuel Macron “ensured” that the new tenant of Matignon would meet the conditions of stability and the broadest possible unity, assures the Elysée.
Understand: protect Gabriel Attal’s successor from attempts at overthrow at the Palais Bourbon. Questioned by our colleagues at LCI a few minutes after the Elysée’s statement, Marine Le Pen remained fairly evasive, however making it known that her group would wait for “Michel Barnier’s general policy speech” to make a decision, in concert with the president of the party with the flame. “We will judge his general policy speech, his budgetary decisions and his action on the evidence,” tweeted Jordan Bardella following the appointment of the former European Brexit negotiator. Conclusion: Michel Barnier is, as of today, at the mercy of the RN.