Next week, the final ratification of a Swedish membership can take place in Turkey. At 1 pm on Thursday, local time, the Turkish Foreign Affairs Committee will meet in Ankara. The third item on the agenda is the Swedish NATO application.
According to information to the news agency TT, President Recep Tayyep Erdogan would like to bring a positive message to Berlin on Friday, when he meets the German Chancellor. Olaf Scholz.
But according to Turkey expert Michael Sahlin, there are still many uncertainties surrounding the Swedish NATO issue.
– There may be a lot of additional delay factors left, before there is a positive decision, he says and continues:
– I think it’s 50/50 right now when it comes to whether this will be finished quickly before Christmas, or if there is a risk that it will drag on into next year.
If Parliament votes yes
Within the Turkish political system, the president has “very large” power to govern and make decisions in parliament, explains Michael Sahlin. Even if Erdogan has to deal with the ultra-conservative cooperation party, MHP.
– MHP has more or less said “never” to accept Sweden’s NATO application, says Sahlin.
If the Turkish parliament votes for Swedish NATO membership, it means that Erdogan has given the go-ahead for Swedish NATO membership. This is on the condition that there are no more foreign policy crises, such as Koran burnings in Sweden, says Sahlin.
– I find it hard to imagine that they decide to support this and still sort of keep it up. It would be politically and foreign policy difficult for him to do in such a situation, says Sahlin.
The NATO question is decided by the USA
At the same time that Turkey is processing the Swedish NATO application, intensive negotiations are underway with the United States to deliver F-16 planes to Turkey, to a value of approximately 20 billion dollars. A complicated negotiation that could decide the Swedish NATO process, says Michael Sahlin.
– All of this is of course connected and I judge that the Swedish question is not decided by Sweden but by the USA.
– For the US, it has been important to balance it in turn against what they have in mind, as far as Sweden is concerned, says Sahlin.
A Turkish success in the F-16 negotiations with the US would be enough for President Erdogan, who is keen to present an image of success in the negotiations.
– Then he can say that I have forced the USA to supply F16 planes.
The war between Israel and Hamas
President Erdogan’s position in the war between Israel and Hamas has also made the negotiations even more difficult, says Michael Sahlin.
– After an initially wait-and-see stance on Erdogan’s part, he has stepped forward and taken a stand against Israel and Netanyahu.
– He has also said that Hamas is not a terrorist organization like the United States and the rest of the West, but a liberation movement.
It is “classic Turkish politics”, but in this situation, it is “a bit controversial” that Erdogan makes this statement, says Sahlin.
– The question is how the Congress in the United States reacts to it? Or is it possible to separate an ongoing negotiation issue that concerns Turkish-American relations?