Researchers believe that Finland and Sweden will go hand in hand in decision-making.
Russia’s ruthless attack on Ukraine seems to have strengthened Swedish voters’ support for NATO membership, but so far the country’s political leadership has been reluctant to open a debate on the issue.
Docent in Military Science at the Swedish National Defense College Tomas Ries sees that underlying the caution of the Social Democratic minority government.
– There will be elections in the autumn, and a very large part of the Social Democrats are strongly against NATO, Ries tells STT.
The Swedish government is thus following the traditional line. Last Friday, Secretary of Defense Peter Hultqvist emphasized after the NATO meeting that the opening of MSI information exchange to Finland and Sweden did not mean rapprochement with NATO. The rules enabling the exchange of information have been in force since 2018, he stressed.
Brainstorming Director of the Atlantic Council for Northern Europe Anna Wieslander estimates that the Swedish security policy debate is deeply anchored in history.
– If we compare the discussion between Finland and Sweden, then in Finland NATO is being discussed more actively. It is said that the situation is being closely monitored and decisions are being made on that basis. The analysis looks more forward. In Sweden, we look more backwards and think that the current line has been stable and has served us well. Finland has a more flexible attitude, Wieslander tells STT.
Ideas play a major role in Swedish politics, and non-alignment is deep in the Swedish political soul. For a country that has not been at war for more than 200 years, it would not be an easy step to ally militarily.
– Sweden is an ideological country, but at the same time behind the scenes very real political. We saw it in connection with the application for EU membership in 1990. If there is a great national interest, the direction may change in a twist, Ries anticipates.
The neighbor is not surprised
Sweden’s application for EU membership has been left to Finland for decades to come, as Sweden ordered the papers to be withdrawn without informing Finland in advance.
Thought workshop Magman researcher Mikko Majanderin according to the same pattern could no longer be repeated.
– There is still a fear in Finland that Sweden will surprise with its NATO application, but it has become terribly much less likely. Now Finland is viewed with even a little admiration. Dagens Nyheter wrote that Finland is more pragmatic in the NATO matter and can make a solution that Sweden will have to follow. It doesn’t really fit Sweden’s self-image, they have been a bit self-sufficient here, Majander tells STT.
Ries agrees and believes the situation is different now. If a decision is made to apply for NATO membership in either Finland or Sweden, it is clear that the neighbor will be kept up to date.
– The co-operation between Finland and Sweden is now so deep that I do not think that either country could do so without consulting the other. It is not completely ruled out that the application could only come from another country, but the setup has changed. In Helsinki, the President and the Prime Minister have signaled that NATO membership can be discussed and that it is worth discussing. In Sweden, the government has tried to put the matter off the table and does not even want to mention the NATO option, Ries says.
According to Ries, it is possible that neighboring countries, despite the exchange of information, will end up on different lines.
– I would not be surprised if Finland applied for membership and Sweden did not. Sweden can afford to stay out of NATO if Finland joins, but Finland cannot afford to stay out if Sweden joins, Ries ponders.
Wieslander estimates that if either country decides to move forward and apply for membership, the first call will be made to a neighboring country. At the same time, everything is being done to get membership together.
“I think all evaluators will see that, militarily and geopolitically, it would be best if we both joined, as we did with EU membership,” says Wieslander.
According to Majander, it is now worth following closely what is happening and being talked about in Sweden.
– We have not been so closely involved since the Finnish War (1808-09). In that sense, we are pretty much glued side by side, but on a more equal footing than before. Sweden has woken up to see if they are still on the front line. The strategic focus of the Baltic Sea has shifted south, with Gotland and Sweden roughly at the forefront as tensions rise, Majander estimates.
According to Majander, the Russian invasion has changed the setup of the debate.
– Russia’s actions have clearly brought NATO a viable option for both countries.
NATO will not be an election theme
According to an opinion poll commissioned by the Swedish broadcaster SVT on Thursday and Friday, 41 per cent were in favor of NATO membership and 35 opposed. The number of supporters had risen by four percentage points since January. Of the parliamentary parties, the moderate coalition, the center, the Christian Democrats and Liberals are in favor of membership, the Social Democrats are in favor of the current line, and the Swedish Democrats want to keep the NATO option. The Left and Environment Party oppose joining NATO.
Despite the differences of opinion between the parties, none of the researchers believe that NATO would be emerging as a theme in the upcoming election.
“Security policy and foreign policy are not issues that will win the election,” Wieslander said.
However, a debate may arise within the parties. The Social Democrats are in favor of continuing the current line, but there are other views in the big party and a twist can arise.
– The Social Democrats have traditionally had tensions between the right and the left. The ideological voices against NATO, nuclear weapons and the United States have been the most audible, with pragmatists not as much on display, Wieslander says.
Spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry Marija Zaharovan Statements on the military and political consequences of Finland and Sweden joining NATO were also noted in Sweden. Prime minister Magdalena Andersson emphasized that Sweden would decide independently on its security policy. According to Wieslander, statements like this do not have the effect that Russia wants.
– Until now, it has been the case that when Russia threatens, the Swedes are starting to support NATO membership even more. No one likes commanding and intimidating.
Another question regarding membership is whether a crisis situation like the current one is a good time to apply for membership. Membership must be accepted and ratified by all member states. The question of a referendum is also open, but Wieslander sees it as a risk to hold one. The decision should be made by parliament.
– Such a matter cannot be opened to a referendum in a situation where a hostile power would use it to spread disinformation and propaganda.