“What a turnaround! The results of the second round of the French legislative elections have completely confounded the predictions,” rejoiced the Belgian daily The eveningin an editorial published on Sunday, July 7. “The main explanation is obviously the almost unexpected effectiveness of the republican front launched by the left and followed, sometimes timidly, by the Macronist camp.” After early legislative elections which, against all expectations, brought the New Popular Front to the forefront and pushed the National Rally out of power, foreign reactions are celebrating a France that seems to have come to its senses.
In Spain, Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez welcomed the fact that France and the United Kingdom – where the Labour Party won the legislative elections last week – had opted for a “rejection of the extreme right and a firm commitment to the social left”. Across the Atlantic, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva hailed the triumph “against extremism” and the “maturity of political forces” in France on Sunday. The same tone was heard in Germany, where a leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz considered that “the worst” had been “avoided” with the disappointing score of the National Rally in the French elections, from which Emmanuel Macron nevertheless emerged “politically weakened”.
Because if foreign observers were also able to breathe a sigh of relief on Sunday evening, noting the revival of a republican front against the extreme right, the international press is now asking itself the question of who will lead the country and how. “France seems almost ungovernable in the run-up to the Paris Olympic Games, which will open in less than three weeks,” worries the New York Times. “While the winner was a surprise, the result was in line with expectations: a parliament without a majority, composed of three opposing blocs, with extremely different programs and no tradition of coalitions. […] “unlike many countries in continental Europe,” notes the British daily The Guardian.
“Everything will depend on the willingness to compromise”
Who will be the tenant of Matignon in the coming weeks? Speculation is rife. “Normally, it should be a member of the largest parliamentary bloc, but the appointment of a radical left-wing Prime Minister would risk leading to repeated votes of no confidence,” continues the progressive newspaper. Another problem highlighted by The Economistthe probable difficulty that the New Popular Front, due to its heterogeneous nature, will have in proposing a leader who can achieve consensus: “before the election result, the alliance had been unable to present a single candidate for the post of Prime Minister”, notes the British liberal newspaper.
So it all depends, sums up The Guardian for his part, “of the willingness to compromise of La France Insoumise and Jean-Luc Mélenchon”. As for an alliance between the Macronists and the more moderate sectors of the NFP, namely the Socialist Party and the Greens, “they would obtain the weakest of majorities”. The other possibility mentioned by the New York Times would be “that Mr. Macron tries to form a sort of interim government to manage current affairs.” A technical government, like Italy’s, composed of experts, economists, diplomats and even academics.
“Be careful not to disappoint”
But all agree that, whatever solution is found, France is heading for a long period of political uncertainty and instability. “It seems that a constitutional crisis cannot be ruled out in the coming months,” writes the New York daily, which also warns not to underestimate Marine Le Pen’s party in the months and years to come. “Even with fewer seats than expected, the National Rally now occupies a place in French politics that erases a post-war political landscape built around the idea that the far right’s history of racism and overt anti-Semitism made it unworthy of positions of power.”
Also beware of the risk of resentment among the voters of the National Rally, if they were to have the feeling that in addition to having missed out on the election, the new government has nothing to offer them: “They will have the feeling of having been deprived of victory by a set-up by the Parisian elite [de centre gauche]”, warns The EconomistThe next political party to lead France will thus bear an immense responsibility: “The left and Macronie must hear and understand the anger [des millions de Français qui ont donné leur voix au RN] […]”If the democratic parties do not firmly tackle this feeling of rejection, the extreme right will have a bright future ahead of it,” writes Christophe Berti, editor-in-chief of Eveningwho is concerned that the new alliance may be “only a temporary bandage”.