The support of the conservatives will not disappear, but this may strengthen Lula’s government, assesses the Finnish expert on the Brazilian Congress attack

The support of the conservatives will not disappear but this

Supporters of the ex-president attacked Congress and the Supreme Court. They consider the result of the presidential election to be fraudulent and hope for a coup to restore Bolsonaro to power.

14:53•Updated 14:54

In Brasília, the administrative buildings occupied by the protesters have been cleared and around 300 protesters have been arrested. The attack on Brazil’s National Congress, the Presidential Palace and the Supreme Court is over and has been condemned both in Brazil and abroad.

Professor of world politics at the University of Helsinki Teivo Teivainen believes that the events of last night can strengthen the new president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva position. Those politicians who have not been clearly supporters of Lula or Bolsonaro are now choosing sides.

– Everything suggests that a large part leans behind the democratically elected government and the related rule of law. This may strengthen the operating conditions of Lula’s government and mean that this phase of the protests will fade, Teivainen tells by phone.

He does not believe in the possibility of a military coup that the protesters are hoping for, and sees no signs of it. On the other hand, the attack on government buildings reveals the discontent of Bolsonaro’s supporters.

– Bolsonaro’s ideas and person have support. In addition, there is widespread support for ideas that combine populist right-wingism, religious conviction and conservative family values. It’s not going anywhere here, Teivainen states.

“Politicians don’t want to dig their own hole”

The administration has resolutely suppressed the protests, and President Lula da Silva himself has assured that those responsible will be found and punished.

Governor of the State of Brasília Ibanez Rocha is shelved and safety director Anderson Torres has been separated. Both were among Bolsonaro’s supporters. In addition, a judge of the Supreme Court of Brazil Alexandre de Moraes has ordered the camps of Bolsonaro’s supporters to be dismantled within a day.

However, Teivainen does not believe that Bolsonaro’s supporters will start to be purged from the administration. In the October elections in Brazil, in addition to the president, the representatives of the House of Representatives and the Senate, state governors and representatives of the local parliaments of the states were elected. They have an elected mandate, even if they are supporters of Bolsonaro.

– Probably many of them, including Bolsonaro himself, are aware that the possibility of a real coup is weak. Then going out to support the protesters would be digging one’s own hole, Teivainen states.

He also reminds that the experiences of the Brazilian economic elite with Lula as president are positive. Lula served as president from 2003 to 2011.

– The Brazilian business elite remembers that the rich got richer and big Brazilian companies did exceptionally well.

Although the global economic situation is different, it is expected in Brazil that the trade negotiations between the so-called Mercosur region and the EU would start. In addition to Brazil, Mercosur includes Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.

– Although among the demonstrators there is talk of communism with religious undertones and talk about the danger of communism, the business elite knows that they can do business with Lula quite well, Teivainen acknowledges.

In addition, both Latin America, the United States and the European Union have condemned the protestors’ attack on the government buildings in Brasília.

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