Observers note a craze for advance voting for this November 5 election. The equivalent of a third of the total voters in the 2020 election have already spoken. The reasons given are multiple: fear of unrest on voting day, no waiting time in the offices… but it is difficult to predict the effect of this early voting on the outcome of the presidential election.
Nationwide, more than 70 million people have already voted in advance, according to data from the University of Florida, a rate lower than the record recorded in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic, but which still shows the implications of the United States, reports Agence France Presse.
The counties organized themselves in 2020, due to the covid pandemic to allow advance voting, reminds us Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at Ipsos, the polling institute, speaking to Sylvie Noël of RFI. “ They increased the possibilities, in legal terms and in logistical terms, for voters to vote either in polling stations opened in advance, or by mail in the days and weeks preceding the election.
While the surveys still give the two candidates a close call five days before the election, both Democrats and Republicans continue to call on voters to go to the polls as quickly as possible.
When Donald Trump changes his mind
Candidate Donald Trump had, in 2020, discouraged Republican voters from using advance voting. SO ” many Republican strategists felt that it had been a mistake, continues Mathieu Gallard. Indeed, Donald Trump, Ben has changed his tune. He calls on his voters to vote in advance, whereas in 2020 he told them above all not to do so! “.
The tensions generated by this presidential campaign and the fear of possible excesses perhaps explain the enthusiasm of voters for this voting method. At a mid-week meeting, Republican candidate Donald Trump welcomed the “ historic record for early voting » and the surge of Republicans in this contingent. On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden, Kamala Harris’ running mate Tim Walz and former President Barack Obama staged their early voting, calling on voters to do the same.
Early voting also in “swing states”
In Georgia, more than 3 million people voted, or 45% of registered voters, a record, according to Brad Raffensperger, the Republican Secretary of State. A situation that we find in several other “swing states”, these states decisive for final victory, such as North Carolina, underlines Agence France presse. The high rate of mail voting in Pennsylvania, other swing statewhere ballots cannot be processed until election day, could delay the announcement of results nationwide.
Finally, investigations have been opened in recent days after the burning of several ballot boxes in the states of Washington and Oregon and in Arizona, on the Pacific coast.
In Arizona, the success of advance voting
In Phoenix, Arizona, our special correspondent, Aabla Jounaidi met voters who vote in advance. “ It’s so much simpler…there are no crowds…no angry people… It can be scary », confides Rebecca to him. In this voting center in Mesa in the suburbs of Phoenix, there is no line; sliding the envelope takes 5 minutes. And as Rebecca says, there are no pro-Trump activists to disrupt operations, as was the case for the vote count in 2020.
In the envelope there are four pages: to choose a president, but also local elected officials, those of Congress, and respond to around ten referendums, particularly on immigration, and the inclusion of abortion in the State Constitution.
“ I am 100% pro-abortion, continues Rebecca. For the border, there was an excellent bipartisan bill that Trump killed. We have to work on the border but deporting millions of people based on their skin color is not possible. »
Long discredited by Donald Trump who accused him of encouraging fraud, early voting is once again in the odor of sanctity in the former president’s camp. Which allows Bryn to come and slip in his ballot… for Trump this time. “ For one main reason, the economy, she tells us. And then, I like him a lot because he has an ability, compared to other leaders, to do what is necessary. I like it! »
All these interviews were conducted more than 20 meters from the office: this is the law in Arizona. A distance which allows us to preserve the serenity of the vote, whispers an employee.
– Gap between women and men –
“The perception that voters have of the candidates is very marked” and explains the high participation, said Julian Zelizer, professor at Princeton University, to AFP.
This vote is in any case a boon for the campaign teams, according to Michael McDonald, political scientist at the University of Florida, who closely follows early voting.
“Each of these early voters is a person that the campaign teams are removing from their lists, and each voter that they are removing from their lists is a person that they no longer have to contact,” he said. he explained in a podcast.
But according to him, this early vote is nothing like that of previous years and it is therefore difficult to make projections.
According to figures compiled by his laboratory for six states – Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia – women represent approximately 55% of early voting, compared to 45% for men.
A result which makes the Democrats smile, even if it is impossible to say whether this will materialize for the rest of the election.
In the polls, Kamala Harris, who has made the defense of abortion one of her strong campaign themes, is counting heavily on the vote of women. And even hopes to convince moderate conservatives to join the Democratic camp thanks to this theme.
For their part, the Republicans point out that according to surveys, more and more of their supporters are voting in advance. The difference shows that, unlike in previous elections, there are barely more of them among the Democrats – 39% against 36%.
At a meeting Wednesday evening, Republican candidate Donald Trump welcomed the “historic record in early voting” and the surge of Republicans in this contingent.
One thing is certain, this vote has not finished being scrutinized: investigations have been opened in recent days after the burning of several ballot boxes in the states of Washington and Oregon and in Arizona, on the Pacific coast .
Additionally, the high rate of mail voting in Pennsylvania, where ballots cannot be processed until Election Day, could delay the announcement of results nationwide.
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