But since he tells you he was right! Reason against all. Reason against the rest of the left. Reason against unions. Reason against some of his own, too. The strategy of “bordélisation” of his rebels in the National Assembly, the bacchanalia of amendments – most signed by LFI deputies – to prevent the final vote on the pension reform in the hemicycle, his tweet torpedoing the Communists which has upset all the Nupes partners… Jean-Luc Mélenchon is convinced he was right.
He would know better than all these, from the top of his 22% in the last presidential election, swears his entourage. One would almost be tempted to give him the point: the action of the Insoumis in the hemicycle damaged their image a little more with the French, but the text of the reform left the Bourbon palace without a vote and, in fact, devoid of parliamentary legitimacy.
But at what price has Jean-Luc Mélenchon shaken up the left in recent weeks? He angered everyone, the unions in particular, which have found favor in the eyes of the French and have brought together millions of people in the streets since the beginning of the year. This March 7, promised as the D-Day of a “stopped” France, is no exception to the rule: more than a million people have certainly beaten the pavement again, and again and again in France. sub-prefectures. Ironically, this popular cohesion where we find employees, civil servants, students, high school students and other sociological components supposedly acquired on the left is not found either in the Nupes, or in LFI, or in any other political space of the moment; not even that, anti-Nupes and social democrat, that the former socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve decided to structure.
Mélenchon has lost its luster
A mass of voters, politically orphans, whom the rebellious chief eyed greedily. He has little desire to convince them, rather to impose himself on them as the only alternative on the left. The battle for pensions is therefore just one more tool for him, at the service of his putative candidacy in 2027. And “bordélisation” is only a synonym for “conflictualisation”, a populist theory dear to Mélenchon, which allows him to sift the political field on the left. He is convinced of having done so by pushing Emmanuel Macron into the arms of the right, which alone can save the text. The Social Democrats and the rest of the moderate left, lenient towards Macron but critical of the reform, would therefore be forced to choose sides. “Reviving a macrono-compatible ‘center left’ at his hand, capable of leaving Nupes for a broad republican front ‘against the RN’. Not even original”, he writes on his blogmocking the presidential desires of Cazeneuve.
Does he have the skills? If he dreams of doing something from March 7, and the days that follow, he doesn’t know where to start. It has lost its luster, as evidenced by its bitter failure of ratings (1.03 million viewers) during the program L’Event on France 2, on January 12th. He, the tribune, far from the National Assembly, attracts neither looks nor demonstrators. He has drawn no benefit from the parliamentary battle or the street protest when the unions are reinvigorated. Neither he nor his Nupes are the alpha and omega of protest, as he once hoped. In Odoxa’s latest political barometer for Public Senate and the regional daily press where a large majority of French people say they oppose the reform, Mélenchon’s membership rating even fell by six points among left-wing supporters.
Act II and European
He will be reassured by seeing the rest of the Nupes – these socialists, these communists and these ecologists who dream of finding a replacement for him – just as lost in the face of this first day of the rest of the strike, if not more if the blockages multiply and that the French economy suffers. “We are waiting, admits a socialist tenor. We watch, hoping that apples fall from the sky, but I do not believe that politics is done that way.” And the same to put the finger where it hurts: “Our problem, especially for us socialists and environmentalists, is that we hold our noses as soon as it becomes a little radical, we say Oh that’s not right. Our real subject should rather be: how do we give a political translation to this anger to channel it into the ballot box?
The ballot boxes, again, the only justices of the peace, since March 7 is not a political turning point for the Nupes. The next European elections of 2024 remain an oh so explosive subject between the partners of the union of the left. However, they are a cardinal appointment as they set the tempo for the next presidential election. Those of 2019 had even given a rather realistic foretaste of the balance of power of 2022. If the differences on European questions with the rebellious remain, it is above all the strategy of each other that tends the Nupes. The ecologists have already said no to a common list, the communists too and the socialists, if they have already said no, can still change their minds, even if they do not admit it publicly. These three want to focus on an “act II of the Nupes” in parliament first, calling on the rebellious to be “more collective”.
Something to annoy Manuel Bompard, chief coordinator of LFI and lieutenant of Mélenchon. “Talking about Act II without asking the question of the strategy for the upcoming elections makes no sense”, he nuances, while saying “wait for arguments” to show him that a common list is not effective. “Why do we deny ourselves the chance to be first, in front of Macron and Le Pen?” He gets annoyed. Facing the street as facing the polls, the left, certainly united, still runs headless.