Macronism was born in victory. Its hegemonic temptation has guided its strategic choices since November 16, 2016, when Emmanuel Macron announced his candidacy for the presidential election. The parties of the Republican arc? Competitors to be subjugated, sometimes. To be crushed, often. The “reason”? He has arrogated the monopoly on it, relegating his adversaries to the limbo of extremism. Even the relative majority in the National Assembly, a warning sent by the French in June 2022, has not undermined his certainties.
The presidential camp switches this Sunday, June 30 to another world. With 21% of the vote, the Ensemble coalition and its allies are clearly ahead of the National Rally (RN) and the New Popular Front (NFP) at the end of the first round of the early legislative elections. The Elysée secretly hoped for a participation rate of 70%, a supposed sign of an awakening of the Macronist electorate. As if the people were inherently committed to his discourse of moderation. The ballot boxes swept away this fantasy, despite a slight burst of mobilization from the Macronist base. Goodbye to the dream of an absolute majority, which Emmanuel Macron was still hoping for in private a few days ago. Even this coalition of moderates, a breath of fresh air for the presidential camp, has everything of a pipe dream.
Call to beat the RN
Here is Macronie reduced to the role of arbiter between the left and the RN. Asked to choose between these camps that it has constantly torn apart during the campaign. “Faced with the National Rally, the time has come for a broad, clearly democratic and republican gathering for the second round,” reacted Emmanuel Macron in a statement after the results were announced. Here is the far right once again erected as the ultimate adversary, seven years after the start of a tango. To those who blame him for the rise of the RN, the head of state retorts that he beat it twice in the presidential election. This time, he can only call for it to be defeated.
The exact contours of the “rally” advocated by Emmanuel Macron are vague, while between 285 and 315 triangulars are announced for the July 7 election. Will the majority candidates who came in third place withdraw in favor of an LFI contender, who has been acting like a scarecrow for three weeks? Should we call for a vote for the formation of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in a duel against the RN? The majority draws several shades of Republican front.
Strategic polyphony
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced the “withdrawal” of candidates “whose remaining in third position would have led to the election of a National Rally MP over another candidate who, like us, defends the values of the Republic”, suggesting that LFI candidates would be treated on a case-by-case basis. Edouard Philippe considered that “no vote” should “be cast for the National Rally candidates, nor for those” of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party. Conversely, marchers are advocating a total blockade of the far right. “The real danger today is an absolute National Rally majority”, wrote Industry Minister Roland Lescure on X.
This polyphony is inherent to Macronism, running to various roots. It is also the product of a strategy launched on June 9, the evening of the European elections. As soon as the dissolution of the National Assembly was pronounced, Emmanuel Macron launched a campaign that was as offensive in its rhetoric as it was defensive in substance. The presidential project is hardly a question in this lightning war. Macronie is content to send the left and the RN back to back, saddled with the label of “extremists”. It poses as a bulwark of the two movements and tries to embody a “useful vote” in view of June 30. “Rarely has a first round been so important”, recently confided a pillar of the government. The power instills fear in order to limit the damage and save its relative majority.
In vain. Accustomed to gripping its opponents, the executive is deprived of political oxygen. The actor turns into a simple commentator on the agreement reached by the RN and Eric Ciotti and the alliance of the left. Contrary to its raison d’être, the central bloc is relegated to the second division of political life. “The media called us to comment on the remarks of others,” confided an outgoing MP at the end of the campaign.
Rupture and emancipation
This defeat was not written in the last three weeks. It was sealed on June 9 by the head of state himself. The French never understood the meaning of the dissolution of the National Assembly, contested even within the ranks of the majority. This lightning campaign marked a rupture and an emancipation. A rupture between a people and its president, who has never taken the measure of his unpopularity. “This is the first time he will get a beating after his failure at the École Normale Supérieure,” confided one of the president’s interlocutors before the European elections. This shock has not quenched his thirst for public expression. But also the emancipation of one camp towards its mentor. The presidential candidates are distancing themselves from Emmanuel Macron, just as the deputies who will survive the early legislative elections promise to do.
This poker move should, barring a huge surprise, plunge Macronism into the opposition on July 8. Its creator has one week to avoid the entry into Matignon of Jordan Bardella. And so that this image does not crush the record of the one who committed, one evening in May 2017, to do everything so that the French no longer have “any reason to vote” for the extremes.
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