On May 15, thousands of young people gathered in a square in the center of Bangkok to cheer the winner of the legislative elections, who had just created a surprise, far ahead of the pro-military groups. Standing in the back of a pickup truck, the leader of the Move Forward Party, Pita Limjaroenrat, a 42-year-old businessman with the physique of a young star, educated at Harvard and at MIT, the crowd harangued: “this is the greatest honor of my life: to be able to serve you all.”
The game was set: Pita would become the 30th Prime Minister of the kingdom. He had concluded a pre-coalition agreement with members of Pheu Thai, the populist party of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra – overthrown in a 2006 coup and in exile since 2008, after being convicted of corruption. However, his team came in second place.
Thailand, whose youth took to the streets en masse in 2020 to demand democratic reforms, finally had an opportunity to modernize its political staff and extricate itself from the powerful alliance between the army, the monarchy and the oligarchy businessman at the helm for decades. The Move Forward proposed the dismantling of economic monopolies, the reduction of the role of the army in politics and a reform of the monarchy, with amendments to the article on the crime of lèse-majesté, used by those in power to neutralize the opposition, which provides for up to fifteen years in prison for any insult to the king and his family.
“Subversion of the popular will”
But young people have had their revolution stolen. Because a few weeks before the elections, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra had – also – met secretly with emissaries from the palace, the army and the executive in Malaysia. An agreement had been reached: the next coalition would exclude Move Forward in favor of an alliance between the Pheu Thai of the former leader in exile and the pro-military parties of the outgoing government. Treason !
After three months of maneuvering, the “plotters” placed a billionaire with no political experience, Srettha Tavisin, at the head of their coalition. Although winner of the legislative elections, Pita Limjaroenrat was dismissed from his post as parliamentarian, then made ineligible for that of Prime Minister. “Every time a party wins elections convincingly and its leader appears charismatic and capable, conservative forces backtrack to annihilate the results,” judges Thitinan Pongsudhirak, professor at Chulalongkorn University. “It is a subversion of the popular will.”
Deleterious climate
The same day that Parliament named Srettha the billionaire, Thaksin Shinawatra, aged 74, made a remarkable return to his country, where he said he was ready to serve his eight-year prison sentence. But the sentence was quickly reduced to one year by royal decree. Since then, Thaksin has been officially treated for health problems in a police hospital.
Without an absolute majority, his party, Pheu Thai, remains at the mercy of other parties linked to military-economic powers. The future of the new government is therefore uncertain, especially since the country’s socio-economic climate – decline in exports, slower-than-expected recovery in tourism, increase in inequalities, high household debt – is not bright. Will this situation lead to a new wave of youth protest? To last and achieve their objectives, the demonstrators would need robust financial and political support. “For the moment,” says Bunkueanun ‘Francis’ Paothong, a 23-year-old student leader, “Move Forward does not yet have the means.”
“The hope of the younger generation lies more in the next elections,” says Panasaya ‘Rung’ Sithijirawattanakul, 25, another leader of the 2020 movement who, under 11 charges of lese majeste, made three trips to prison. If he maintains his positions, Move Forward will garner more votes.” She hopes to witness “the last breath of elites who fear change”. In an interview with AFP, Pita Limjaroenrat, the pro-democracy youth hero, has just assured that he has not given up fighting to become Prime Minister, despite the legal proceedings against him. But his enemies are ruthless. Proof of the tension in power, Arnon Nampa, a lawyer who had launched calls for reform of the monarchy, was sentenced on September 26 to four years in prison.
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