A crowd stretching as far as the eye can see, hostile to France. On Saturday September 2, Niamey experienced new massive demonstrations against the French presence in Niger, in particular in front of a military base housing some of the 1,500 tricolor soldiers present in the country. The junta, in power since the coup d’etat at the end of July, encourages these demonstrations of force against Paris and has decided to proceed with the expulsion of the French ambassador to Niamey, holed up in the embassy with a limited number of personal.
Opposite, French diplomacy displays the will to hold a firm line: Paris does not obey the requests of the new putschist power, considered illegitimate. A risky showdown. “Currently, firmness towards Niger seems totally unrealistic, believes former diplomat François Gaulme, associate researcher at Ifri. This situation is becoming untenable for the French ambassador in Niamey. “State is illegitimate, but it does not prevent dialogue, as France had done in Mali. There, in Niger, there is something seizing up…”
France accused of preparing an invasion of Niger
As in Mali in 2021, then in Burkina Faso in 2022, the junta has relied since taking power on anti-French sentiment, which is particularly widespread in urban areas in Niger. The departure of our soldiers, present in the context of the fight against terrorism in the Sahel, is a priority for the new masters of Niamey, who accuse France of preparing a military invasion. “In the countryside and in areas directly at grips with terrorist groups, many were satisfied with the action of Barkhane, which represented a real security force and sometimes humanitarian aid, notes Djenabou Cisse, researcher at the Foundation for Research In cities, and especially in opposition strongholds, the French military presence was sometimes experienced differently, as a real interference threatening sovereignty. With a little media boost from Wagner in recent years – the Russian group is experienced in disinformation – anger against France inflames part of the street and welds it together behind the putschists.
A maneuver of instrumentalization, certainly, but which is based on decades of real resentment. The Minister of Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna has assured, In The world, that “Francafrique has been dead for a long time”, the former colonial power continues to crystallize resentment in Niger. “Emmanuel Macron’s main mistake is not to have understood that everything passes except the past, underlines Antoine Glaser, author of Macron’s African Trap (Fayard, 2021). France cannot wave the magic slate to erase colonization, young people want to talk about it… This whole period has not been settled. Hence the anti-French feelings.”
Supporters of the military coup leaders demonstrate in Niamey, Niger, August 6, 2023
© / afp.com/-
The period also marks a certain disconnection from French diplomacy, which minimized this resentment of the population for years and was completely surprised by the July 26 putsch. “If France is taken aback by these coups, it is in particular because cooperation with the various countries in the area often remains very state-based, from presidential regime to presidential regime, and above all from elite to elite, points out Djenabou Cisse. Inevitably, when we talk mainly to actors in power, it is more difficult to take the exact temperature of what is happening in civil society and within opposition movements, despite the efforts made in this direction for several years. It is becoming necessary to further diversify the channels of exchange and cooperation.” Hoping it’s not too late…
In the short and medium term, France finds itself in a total impasse in the Sahel. In Niger, the junta has been effective in controlling the levers of power and establishing the transition, well helped by its coup neighbors in Mali and Burkina Faso. The ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) countries maintain their threat of military intervention, but with each passing day this scenario moves away. Economic and diplomatic pressures did not work. “The situation escapes us and we will be forced to withdraw our troops from Niger, even if it is not immediate, concludes François Gaulme. We no longer have any direct influence on the region, and that is very worrying. “