President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s speeches about keeping promises in Finland’s NATO issue may mean a breakthrough, but it would not be unusual, even if they also mean continuing the discussions.
Mika Hentunen NATO special reporter
16:12•Updated 17:19
Turkey may ratify Finland’s NATO membership even before the country’s parliamentary and presidential elections on May 14. There are many signs in the air now.
1. Prime Minister of Sweden Ulf Kristersson said on Tuesday that Finland and Sweden might join NATO at different times.
2. Office of the President of the Republic announced on Wednesday (you will switch to another service)that the president Sauli Niinistö will travel to Turkey on Thursday for a working visit and meet Erdoğan on Friday. The foreign minister is coming along Pekka Haavisto.
3. In the afternoon, Niinistö gave a written statement in which he said that he was going to acknowledge Turkey’s response regarding Finland’s NATO membership.
4. Erdoğan told the Turkish media on Wednesday that “Turkey will stick to the promises made to Finland in the NATO matter.”
Logical reasoning from the above would lead to Niinistö and Haavisto returning home at the end of the week with a promise of Turkey’s ratification.
However, it may also happen that Niinistö and Haavisto report that the discussions with Erdoğan were held in good spirit and will continue even though ratification can already be considered almost certain. The latter would be typical of Erdoğan.
Unlike Kristersson, Niinistö has not been to Turkey during the nearly ten-month application process. Maybe Erdoğan wants to drink tea with his distinguished guest in peace first and return to the NATO issue in the near future?
In recent months, Finns and Swedes have seen that the Turkish administration does not work in the same way as the Nordic administration. Erdoğan doesn’t seem to be in a hurry.
However, Turkey has made it clear along the waythat it does not have similar fundamental problems with Finland as it has with Sweden regarding terrorism issues.
Recently, there has been increased pressure on Turkey from both NATO headquarters in Brussels and Washington. Turkey wants to buy F-16 fighter jets from the United States. The White House has already approved the deal, but it is stuck with Congress, which is suspicious of Turkey.
A concession on Finland’s NATO issue could reduce that pressure.
Erdoğan has made Sweden his personal election theme, which he could continue pushing further into the spring. NATO’s new goal seems to be that both Finland and Sweden are members by the Vilnius summit in mid-July.
Eyes are now also turning to Hungary.
The Hungarian Parliament has once again canceled the discussion of NATO ratifications planned for next week. It means that the decisive parliamentary vote scheduled for the week starting on the 27th does not seem to take place.
Hungary, playing a strange game, has only promised that it would not be the last NATO country to ratify Finland and Sweden. Prime minister Viktor Orbán is most obviously in constant contact with Erdoğan and coordinates the use of his country with him.
The matter is practically entirely up to Orbán. The Hungarian government has already approved NATO membership and Orbán’s Fidesz party has the necessary majority in parliament.
Hungary could hold a ratification vote at any time, even today.
More on the topic in the evening’s TV news broadcasts.
The text has been edited at 17:05 after the president gave his written statement.