A first projection on voting intentions in the next legislative elections suggests a radical change in the composition of the National Assembly.
These are numbers that, when they came out, almost flew under the radar. The media world echoed it, without its results having had as significant a resonance as they have today. Because in light of Emmanuel Macron’s announcement to dissolve the National Assembly, the reading is completely different. At the end of 2023, the Les Républicains party commissioned a survey from the Ipsos institute on the voting intentions of the French if legislative elections took place very soon.
Unveiled in March 2024 by The Obs, the results showed that a real shift had taken place in France and that the National Rally still had (large) room for progress at the Palais Bourbon. At the same time, the poll resulted in a massive disavowal for the Macronist camp and a real snub for the Nupes. If its conclusions applied on June 30 and July 7, 2024, the date of the next legislative elections, the balance would therefore be even more upset than in 2022. The survey, although it presents certain limits, is all the more challenging since 4,000 people were then interviewed, a very large sample.
Between 243 and 305 seats for the RN
According to this survey on very hypothetical legislative elections at the time it was revealed, the National Assembly could thus lean greatly to the extreme right, or even have an RN majority. According to the answers obtained by Ipsos, between 243 and 305 seats could be won by the formation of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. The absolute majority being at 289, the party with the flame would therefore not be far from having control over the legislative power and, therefore, from seeing one of its members be appointed Prime Minister and others be appointed within the government . Today, the RN has 89 elected officials. He had 8 in 2017.
At that time, La République en Marche (now Renaissance) had 308 seats. After its fall in 2022 to 244 deputies, thus losing the absolute majority, the party founded by Emmanuel Macron would therefore continue its decline, only managing to elect 117 to 165 candidates. The weakening of the President of the Republic would therefore be clear. Just like that of Nupes, which would go from 150 to 55 or 79 deputies. In this hypothetical shift to the very right of the Bourbon palace, only the LR would remain stable (44 to 60 seats, compared to 62 today).
577 elections with a local dimension
However, these projections must be put in context. At the time of the survey (December 8 to 13, 2023), there was no question of voting again for the deputies before 2027 and the results of the European elections were not known, even if the trend of a The RN’s large victory was already taking shape. The outcome of the continental vote and its consequences in France could thus reshuffle the cards, with certain voters being able to mobilize to try to reform the “sanitary cordon” against the National Rally.
Furthermore, the legislative elections are not one but 577 elections with a local dimension. National assumptions sometimes clash with realities on the ground, where the choice of vote is not always made according to one’s convictions. Certain territories prove it.
The fact remains that this survey highlights a real change, requested and accepted by a large part of the French (not to mention the majority) and which should be looked at carefully: the surveys on the voting intentions of voters carried out before the last elections (presidential, legislative, European) are less and less removed from the reality of the count.