Cold War nuclear disarmament has stalled. In costly nuclear weapons programs, old nuclear weapons are modernized and rebuilt.
– We see very large modernization programs. The world’s nine nuclear weapons countries are basically competing with each other and it is a very aggressive rhetoric we are seeing now, says Hans M. Kristensen, head of research at the Federal American Scientists, FAS.
At the beginning of 2024, the world’s nuclear arsenal consisted of a total of 12,121 nuclear warheads. The number of launch-ready warheads deployed at highest operational readiness is increasing; 100 more in early 2024 compared to early 2023, according to figures published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Sipri.
Disarmament agreement expires
Russia and the United States’ nuclear weapons together make up about 90 percent of the entire world’s nuclear arsenal. In 1972, the first disarmament agreement between the two countries, SALT 1, was signed and has since been extended and renewed.
In early October announced Russian President Vladimir Putin that the agreement will not be renewed after the existing New START Treaty expires in February 2026. In practice, this means that exchanges of data, on-site inspections and validation between the two countries will cease.
– It will be the first time since the 1970s that there will be no restrictions on nuclear weapons. The best we can hope for is that the US and Russia reach a “gentleman’s agreement”. This means that the parties at least agree not to exceed the limit that they had agreed on in the most recently valid agreement, says Hans M. Kristensen.
Hope for public debate
Major decisions about weapons can be perceived as far from the individual citizen, but Federal American Scientists believe that public debate, increased awareness and transparency among decision-makers and journalists can determine the direction in which the rearmament of nuclear weapons goes.
– Transparency and facts with the public are fundamental. During the Cold War, incredible changes were made. With visionary leaders it is possible, says Hans M. Kristensen.