Japan’s relations with Russia quickly cooled after Russia invaded Ukraine. A month ago, we were already in a situation where the former president of Russia, who has recently become known for his crazy outings Dmitry Medvedev urged the Japanese Prime Minister to commit seppuku, or ritual suicide.
Japan has been on the front line with the G7 countries to impose sanctions on Russia, and last week Japan granted a massive $5.5 billion aid package to Ukraine.
– Japan currently has a strong mentality against Russia, says the researcher Bart Gaens. Gaens is a leading researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy.
Even now, the old dispute over the Kuril Islands is causing the worst in the relations between the two countries. The Kuriles are a long group of 56 islands, of which Japan claims the four southernmost islands. In Japan, the area is called the Northern Territory.
The dispute dates back to World War II. The Soviet Union declared war on Japan at the very end of the war and occupied the islands in the fall of 1945. It expelled the population of the area at the time and populated the islands with Ukrainians, among others.
– The Japanese have a feeling for the islands. The fact that the Soviet Union captured the islands after Japan had already surrendered is seen as morally wrong, says Gaens.
Japan has now toughened up its rhetoric and named the islands as “illegally occupied” in its last annual foreign policy report. Japan last used such a harsh expression in 2003.
In Russia, there is strong opposition to the handover of the islands. Last summer, an old video went viral on the internet again, in which Russian children sing a song praising Putin in a kindergarten while wearing uniforms. The song tells among other things (you switch to another service), that “samurai will not get their islands back”. The video was published by the Visegrad 24 news site on its Twitter account.
The dispute over the Kuriles intensified even more when, in March 2022, Russia unilaterally decided to end the visa program that allowed the population expelled from the islands to travel to their places of birth. Russia also ended Japanese fishing rights in the area. The Japanese saw the actions as a backlash against the sanctions.
Gaens does not believe that any kind of agreement with Russia is currently possible.
Could Japan try to resolve the situation militarily?
At the same time as Russia has concentrated almost all of its forces on Ukraine, Japan has made significant decisions regarding its defense forces. Japan decided in December that it will increase its defense spending to two percent of its gross domestic product within the next five years.
That almost doubles Japan’s military spending. At the same time, Japan would become the third largest military power in terms of military budgets, right after the United States and China, passing Russia.
Japan’s new governing coalition plans to change the country’s pacifist constitution. According to researchers, it ends an era: a pacifist, or peace-emphasizing, period in the country’s history. Japan’s constitution, drawn up almost 80 years ago under US supervision, prohibits Japan from having an army. Now Japan is also planning to both buy and develop its own long-range missiles.
According to Gaens, Japan’s armament is primarily a response to the rise of China’s influence. Japan fears that China would learn from Russia and attack Taiwan. This could drag Japan into the Great War. In addition, China might try to seize the Senkaku Islands from Japan. They are an uninhabited group of islands claimed by China.
The researcher does not believe that Japan would try to resolve the Kuriles dispute with Russia militarily.
– It’s impossible. Japan is limited by its constitution, which does not allow it to invade another country. Japan only has self-defense forces, although their capabilities have grown in recent years, says Gaens.
Back in 2006, Putin hinted that Russia could hand over two of the islands to Japan. He referred to a draft peace treaty between Japan and the Soviet Union in 1956 in which the two smallest islands would be handed over to Japan in exchange for it recognizing Russia’s right to other areas. However, Japan has claimed all four islands, and a peace treaty was never signed between the two countries.
This is no longer possible either. In 2020, Russia changed its constitution, which makes it impossible to transfer its territories to other countries. Gaens does not see the situation changing in the near future.
– The situation is at an impasse. Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida clearly stated that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made it impossible to make any kind of agreements with Russia.
He also does not see that Russia could hand over the islands to Japan in the future either.
– The regions are strategically so important for Russia that it cannot afford to lose them to the US ally.