It has been a bloody autumn at the front in eastern Ukraine. The list of places that have fallen into the hands of the Russians is long and fierce fighting is going on at a number of important cities.
Their advances in October accounted for about a fifth of the total conquests for the entire year – a record month already overshadowed by the advances now in November, Independent Russian writes Agency who looked at data from the Ukrainian analysis group Deepstatemap.
In the past week alone, the Russians took about 235 square kilometers in Ukraine, the most successful week in terms of territory for the invasion forces in all of 2024, according to them.
– The Russian model is to completely raze these cities. And the Ukrainians, when there is nothing left to defend, then you have to back off. For Russia, it is a working model, says Joakim Paasikivi, ex. lieutenant colonel.
Swept west from Vuhledar
Shortly after Vuhledar’s fall in early October, the British Ministry of Defense warned that the Russians were targeting Velyka Novosilka a few miles away, a location that played a key role in Ukraine’s 2023 summer offensive.
It turned out to be true. The Russians have since moved towards the city and are now on its outskirts.
ISW writes that the advances in the area clearly show that the situation at the front is not to be regarded as a stalemate. The analysis stands in contrast to the situation last autumn, when the then Ukrainian defense chief described the war as such.
High price in human life
There are many indications that the Russian successes on the battlefield have come at a high price.
On November 15 wrote BBC and Russian Mediazona, which based on open sources calculated on Russia’s losses, that the number of confirmed dead Russian soldiers during September, October and November rose at the highest rate since the 2022 invasion.
They have been able to confirm that close to 80,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in total, but write that their calculations indicate that it may actually be up to 197,000.
According to The Economist, which made an estimate based on open and secret sources, between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers may have died. In September, sources said The Wall Street Journal that 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed. President Zelenskyy denied the reports, saying the real number is “much lower.”