On the front, bad news follows one another at a worrying pace for the Ukrainian army. After claiming the capture of a village on Sunday near Avdiivka, Russian forces announced on Monday April 29 the conquest of the neighboring town of Semenivka, in the east of the country. Despite Washington’s vote for a $61 billion package at the end of April, the situation on the front remains perilous for the Ukrainian forces, after months of facing a shortage of ammunition. “The next few weeks will remain difficult for the Ukrainians while American aid arrives on the front,” said General Nicolas Richoux, former commander of the 7th Armored Brigade. Interview.
L’Express: What is the situation at the front?
General Nicolas Richoux: The shortage of ammunition that the Ukrainians have been facing for several months limits their ability to respond to Russian attacks. The latter are now able to cut into the front, that is to say, to make small advances of a few kilometers. The cessation of arms deliveries to Ukraine by the United States between December and April opened a window of opportunity for them to move forward. This is why they increase the pressure and do everything they can to try to get the maximum gains.
However, I would not go so far as to say that the Ukrainians find themselves in a critical position. This would imply that the front is about to be breached by the Russian army. We are not there. Even if the Russians have switched to a war economy and are manufacturing more munitions than the West can supply to the Ukrainians, they do not yet have the necessary mass – neither in terms of logistics nor in terms of human resources – to carry out a breakthrough.
The head of Ukrainian military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov warned last week of a “difficult period” for Ukraine between “mid-May and early June”. What do you think ?
I share his observation. The next few weeks will remain difficult for the Ukrainians while American aid arrives on the front. Then the danger should reduce as the Ukrainians are resupplied. The Russians will therefore seek to exploit this moment of weakness and we can expect further gains from them in the coming weeks – even if they should remain limited. It is very likely that Vladimir Putin will seek to capitalize on these advances during the commemorations of the end of the Second World War on May 9 in Russia. Moreover, the climatic factor also works in favor of the Russians. The soils are relatively dry today and allow us to return to the offensive season more quickly than expected.
The other big problem facing the Ukrainian army is human resources. Today, it numbers around 700,000 men and this is insufficient to resist effectively on the entire front line. Especially since the men mobilized have been there since the start of the conflict and are exhausted by more than two years of combat. The Ukrainian authorities sought to protect young people due to a demographic deficit within this age group and it is now very difficult for them, politically, to reverse this decision.
Beyond that, Ukrainians also suffer from structural fragility on the industrial level. Dependent on Western aid makes them vulnerable to the political ups and downs that can affect our countries, as we saw with the blocking of American aid for several months. Conversely, Russia is less dependent on the goodwill of its Iranian or North Korean partners, because the capabilities of its defense industry are much greater than those of Ukraine.
Are the West still waiting too long to deliver weapons to Ukraine?
The account is still not there. However, it is not just bad will on the part of Westerners. Truly switching to a war economy is a costly and complex process. Defense manufacturers must obtain financing to invest in their production tools, they also need orders to support their development, they must also train new personnel and secure supply chains… All this takes time, ‘as much as this war had not been anticipated. To take the example of France, aid is increasing, but little by little. In 2024, the goal is to produce 100,000 shells, in order to supply 80,000 to Ukraine and keep 20,000 for our own armies. There is certainly an increase, but this represents barely more than a week of consumption for the Ukrainian forces.
What are the Russians’ next objectives in the coming months?
In the medium term, the Russian objective is to conquer the oblasts of Donetsk and Lugansk, in the east of the country. They will not have the capacity to really go beyond anyway. Taking these regions would allow them to complete their annexation process, launched in September 2022. But this objective does not seem to me to be achievable in the short term.
Take the oblast of Donetsk would involve capturing the fortified cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which will be extremely difficult. Furthermore, the road leading to these two urban centers is dotted with defense lines. There we find in particular the town of Tchassiv Iar, on which the Russians are trying to intensify their efforts, and which is also very fortified. Given the meager progress made by the Russian army over the past year, I still have a long way to go before we get there.
The Ukrainian army also fears an offensive towards Kharkiv in the north, which is the country’s second largest city. Does this scenario seem possible to you?
Currently, this is not credible. Taking a city like Kharkiv would require at least 700,000 troops. This is probably more than the number of troops the Russians have on the entire front line. Urban combat is one of the most difficult for the attacker and requires overwhelming superiority to be able to dislodge the defender from the numerous hiding places and points of resistance that he can take advantage of in this environment.
For example, the capture of Berlin in 1945 mobilized around 2.5 million men. The Russians can certainly mass troops in the North to pose a threat and establish Ukrainian troops in the region, but it seems unlikely that they will take the risk of attacking on two fronts, when they are already having difficulty breaking through. on one. This would require dispersing their forces and increasing their logistical lines.
What state is the Russian army in?
The Russian army suffered greatly and consumed many men. The same goes for its equipment. The Russians have lost at least 15,000 armored vehicles, including nearly 3,000 tanks, since the start of the conflict. And they cannot fully compensate for these losses. Contrary to popular belief, they manufacture relatively few new tanks, but modernize many old Soviet models dating, some, from the 1960s. We are far from the brand new T-90s that would come out of the factories.
Despite everything, it is an army that remains dangerous and has not yet been beaten. And it does not have the same supply problems as the Ukrainian army. The strength of the Russian army actually lies less in its intrinsic power than in Ukrainian weakness. If the Ukrainian army was properly equipped and supplied again, it would be able to stop the Russian army. On this point, American aid will make it possible to return to a certain parity.
What could be the effect of the ATACMS missiles that Washington is now delivering to Ukraine, after having long been reluctant to do so?
Thanks to its range of 300 kilometers, this missile offers the possibility of striking in depth. Concretely, this means that all of the territories currently occupied by the Russians will now be within firing range, and that many targets, which were relatively safe, will no longer be. This can make it possible to destroy logistics lines, communication lines, bridges, command posts, fuel or ammunition depots. We can also note that all of Crimea will be within firing range: in particular its airfields, the Sevastopol naval base, and even the Kerch bridge. The Russians could decide to move back some potential targets, such as ammunition or fuel depots, but this will considerably complicate their operations and slow down their supplies.
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