While Vladimir Putin was informed of “ damage » caused by a Ukrainian strike on a Russian ship in the Black Sea, the Ukrainian army claims to have “ destroy » the ship Novocherkassk in Crimea. According to her, he was carrying Iranian-made Shahed drones, information that is difficult to confirm. A look back at this success of the Ukrainian army with geopolitical analyst Ulrich Bounat, specialized in Central and Eastern Europe, and associate researcher at Open Diplomacy.
3 mins
RFI: How did Ukraine carry out this strike in the Black Sea?
Ulrich Bounat: We are probably on a cruise missile strike and finally, when we look at the arsenal of what the Ukrainians have, it is very likely that this strike was carried out by Storm Shadow or SCALP missiles. , English or French. And it is also probable that this strike was carried out by two Ukrainian Sukhoi fighters which, moreover, Russia claims to have shot down in the process.
It is an important symbol for Ukraine in this somewhat complicated period where Russia has more or less regained the initiative. Just yesterday (Monday December 25, editor’s note), Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed the capture of a very small town not far from Donetsk. This strike and destruction of a Russian landing boat therefore allows the Ukrainians to show that they are still capable of fighting. And this also keeps Russian troops in Crimea under pressure.
Read alsoUkraine says it destroyed a major Russian navy ship in Crimea
Can we say that Russia is in a defensive position in the Black Sea today?
Completely. This is not a small paradox. To be absolutely clear, Ukraine no longer has a navy. It has two or three coast guard vessels. But it already didn’t have much of a navy after 2014, and the little it did have was notably destroyed at Berdiansk. So, it is very clear that the Ukrainian navy is almost non-existent. And despite this, through the use of cruise missiles, coastal anti-ship missiles and maritime drones too, the Ukrainians have actually achieved the feat, without a navy, of inflicting extremely significant damage on the Russian navy. They made it almost inoperative in the north-western quarter of the Black Sea, even though it was very clearly Russia’s objective to transform the Black Sea, in any case the entire northern part of the Black Sea, ” in lake”.
The Russian navy is now clearly on the defensive in the Crimean peninsula, and is therefore increasingly falling back on coastal defense of the Crimea and Russian coasts.
This Novocherkassk ship was damaged in 2022. What was its condition just before this strike?
Indeed, this ship was struck for the first time in March 2022 in the port of Berdiansk and was then repatriated from Crimea. Earlier this year, there was an article that came out in the Russian press saying that it was one of the ships that had technical problems. For this reason, the information coming from the Ukrainian side that this ship was loaded with Shahed drones seems surprising to me. I’m not sure why Shahed drones would have been stored on a landing ship in the port of Feodossia, but I could be wrong.
The strike gives the impression that there was indeed ammunition on board, because the secondary explosion is relatively large, so it is possible that there was a stock of ammunition on board specific to the boat itself. And it is indeed this stock which was destroyed. It was probably because he had been in the same place for a while and the Ukrainians knew he would not move quickly that he was targeted. I don’t think this ship was fully operational, but the symbol is still important.