There are many indications that Russia is gearing up for a new offensive in the near future, and above all in the Donbass region of Ukraine.
Reports suggest that Russian forces have already reconnoitered around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar ahead of what is being described as an anniversary offensive, which is expected to take place around February 24, the day a year after Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian invasion.
Both the ISW think tank and the British Ministry of Defense trace an offensive orchestrated by Valery Gerasimov, the new Russian commander of troops in Ukraine, who wants to show that he is making a difference and can show breakthroughs and progress on the battle lines.
But the supposed Russian attack is not believed to have any major effects on the war as the Russian troops are under heavy pressure.
An image shared by Lieutenant Colonel Peter Lidén.
– It is doubtful whether you will succeed in anything bigger, at least in the near term. I don’t think the power is there. The tactics used are roughly the same as before – a lot of people attacking and which means big losses, he says.
In the player above: See the full analysis of Lieutenant Colonel Peter Lidén.