Despite obvious risks, there are those who want to challenge Putin in next year’s presidential election in Russia. Among others, the mother of three, Jekaterina Duntsova, 40, who wants to stop the war in Ukraine. But according to Russia expert Malcolm Dixelius, her chances are small.
– A candidate like this has no chance, he says to TV4 Nyheterna.
One of the few politicians who dare to challenge the incumbent president in the next presidential election in Russia is the 40-year-old mother of three, Yekaterina Duntsova, who has been politically active since 2017. Among other things, she wants to put an end to the war in Ukraine, and has become known for her demands to move power from the Kremlin to the regions.
But the Russia expert, Malcolm Dixelius, assesses Duntsova’s challenges as far too great for her to be able to influence politics in Russia.
– It is brave to see a person who stands up so clearly against Putin. But there will be other candidates belonging to the “system opposition”. They are formally oppositional, but pursue largely the same policies as the president. They usually get 5-10%, says Dixelius.
– A candidate like this has no chance, he continues.
Dixelius does not believe that Duntsova, whom he describes as a relatively unknown politician from the countryside, is seen as a “huge threat” to Putin.
– They will try to prevent her from being registered as a candidate, he says.
Do you see her as among the main contenders?
– She is the most interesting challenger right now. To be elected, she must show that she has support in a large part of the country. It will be hard.
It could upset Putin
Dixelius believes that Putin feels worried that he did not have any major successes in the war in Ukraine. A Ukrainian attack on Crimea could thus unsettle Putin, according to him.
– Russia is much more vulnerable there.
– If during the winter or spring Ukraine succeeds in causing so much damage to Crimea, that it becomes impossible for Russia to act from there. Then I am not sure that Putin will fall, but he is wavering, he says.
He believes that there are several criteria that need to be met in order for Duntsova to be formally able to stand in the presidential election next year:
She must show that she has broad support in at least 40 regions. Russia has roughly 90 regions. In 40 of them, she must have a support.
She must have a large number of signatures.
Then she must also be approved as a candidate by the commission that approves this.
Getting over all those obstacles is difficult enough, he emphasizes.
– Should she still manage to be registered as a candidate, she will be suspected by a large part of the population who believe that it is just rigged.
– She must be one of those who give legitimacy to the election itself and who will still be won by Putin.