In March 2019, for the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations between France and China, President Xi Jinping offered Emmanuel Macron on the occasion of his visit to France a vase, representing a rooster and a panda. For his part, he had given him a manuscript of the first translation of the thoughts of Confucius, dating from 1688. It was before Covid, before the war in Ukraine, before the resurgence of protectionism.
Optimist – or diplomat – Emmanuel Macron, who had arranged to meet his host at the Villa Kérylos, on the Côte d’Azur, had mentioned during this visit this common desire for “renaissance”, for, he said, “describe what we want respectively for Europe and for China in this century which is opening”.
Five years later, Xi Jinping returns to France to celebrate the 60th anniversary of this partnership. There is no doubt that the two leaders, who should meet at the summit of the Pic du Midi, will display a certain level of view, but diplomatic language will have difficulty dissipating angry subjects. Because there are plenty of them. Ukraine? Beijing has been supporting Russia for months. The Americans say that China will move up a gear and deliver weapons to Moscow. A red line which should logically make the French president react.
New trade war
On the commercial level, the relationship between Paris and Beijing is “complicated”, admits one of our managers. Emmanuel Macron had promised, in the aftermath of the Covid epidemic, to break with excessive dependence on the Middle Kingdom: we are far from it! Certainly, our trade deficit with China fell slightly in 2023, but, above 40 billion euros, there remains statistical proof of our vulnerability. And in sectors of the future, France is already on the verge of losing the game: Chinese electric cars, largely subsidized by Beijing, are arriving en masse on French roads. To resist, Paris supports the counter-offensive launched by the European Commission, which denounces Chinese dumping. There is no doubt that between two “ganbei” (toasts), Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping will explain this new trade war. Beijing has already planned to retaliate: in the likely event of European sanctions, it is French cognac producers who could serve as collateral victims. Players in the cosmetics industry are also in Beijing’s sights.
Seen from Paris, the “renaissance” announced by the Elysée in 2019 remains wishful thinking. Quite simply because in sixty years, the balance of economic power between the two countries has been reversed. “At the time, recalls Hubert Testard, teacher at Sciences Po, French GDP was 1.6 times higher than Chinese GDP; today, the latter is 5.6 times higher than that of France. We are in a partnership, but it’s no longer the same.” China has been waking up for a long time, and the wake-up time has just come for Europe.
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