Jordan Bardella, head of the National Rally list, remains the favorite in the European elections in the results of the latest polls. A strength obtained by convincing voters in other camps…
Just over a month before the European elections, Jordan Bardella remains the undisputed leader in the polls. A favorite position in voting intentions that he has occupied since the first surveys published a year ago. And the head of the National Rally list continues to progress in the results: after having exceeded the bar of 30% of voting intentions, it stabilizes at this very high level, as shown in the last Toluna poll – Harris Interactive published on Wednesday April 24 for Challenges, M6 And RTL. The candidate is credited with 31% of voting intentions.
Seeing the National Rally with such results in the polls is not so surprising in view of previous elections. The Lepenist party had already won the European elections five years ago, with a slight lead over the majority ofEmmanuel Macron (23.3% of the votes against 22.4% for Nathalie Loiseau’s LREM list at the time). And in 2017 as in 2022, Marine Le Pen qualified for the first round of the presidential election against the current head of state, increasing her score from 21.3% to 23.15% between the two deadlines.
But the arrival in the political landscape of a new far-right party in 2022, that of Eric Zemmour called Reconquest, could have weakened the scores attributed to the National Rally… Not in the least, according to the polls. Marine Le Pen has managed to maintain a loyal electorate: 86% of voters who voted for the RN in the presidential election say they will once again choose this party for the European elections on June 9.
Pools of votes in other parties
Rather than fearing the departure of part of its electorate towards its far-right rival, the National Rally list can rejoice in taking some of Eric Zemmour’s voters. 32% of voters who supported the former polemicist who became a politician in 2022 now say they want to vote for the RN in the European elections according to the Toluna – Harris Interactive survey. Changes of camp are much rarer in the other direction: only 4% of Lepéniste voters are ready to vote for Marion Maréchal, head of the Reconquest list.
These additional votes are certainly advantageous for the RN, but they are not surprising since both lists are part of the far-right bloc. But it is not only from this pool that Jordan Bardella draws his new voters. The RN also steals votes from the traditional right represented by the Les Républicains list of François-Xavier Bellamy. 16% of people who voted LR in the presidential election in 2022 or in the last European elections in 2019 want to choose the RN in the next election according to the same study.
It is partly this ability to convince voters in rival or even opposing camps that allows the RN to dominate in the poll results. In comparison, the list of the presidential majority only manages to attract 4 to 5% of LR voters to its cause, despite the efforts made to please this electorate. She is doing a little better on her left by attracting 8 to 9% of environmentalist votes, but nothing comparable to the gains observed by the RN which also manages to attract between 6 and 8% of former majority voters or environmentalists… C It is among rebellious voters that Marine Le Pen’s party convinces the least, even if it still manages to win a handful of votes.