A more detailed roadmap. In The Parisian, This June 18, Jordan Bardella presents his program for the legislative elections of June 30 and July 7. The president of the National Rally has recalled themes dear to the party for several years – immigration, purchasing power -, not without returning to certain promises, such as the abolition of VAT on basic necessities. “It will be done in a second phase,” he says, without further details, on a daily basis.
Social totem of the RN, the repeal of the pension reform raising the retirement age to 64 years, could take place “in the fall”, promises Jordan Bardella. A costly promise, when six out of ten French people – according to the Odoxa economic barometer – would like to make the restoration of public finances a priority. This paradox does not, however, prevent the RN from amassing voters in each election, until finishing in the lead during the European elections with nearly 31.5% of the votes cast on Sunday June 9.
To understand this, L’Express interviewed Gilles Ivaldi, researcher at the CNRS and at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po, specialist in radical rights and populism. According to him, the far-right list gave a political dimension to the concerns of some French people, without concrete reflection on the responses to be provided. Interview.
L’Express: In their one-page leaflet, the RN presents eight proposals in the run-up to the legislative elections. Not a word on support for Ukraine, the fight against global warming, culture… Can the party afford absences on such subjects?
Gilles Ivaldi: These are priority issues which are rarely addressed, if at all, by the RN. Historically, far-right parties like the RN – but also Matteo Salvini’s Italian League, the AfD in Germany or the FPÖ in Austria – have focused and campaigned on specific issues linked to immigration and to security. These values are still reflected in Jordan Bardella’s program and they are fundamental issues for his core electoral target.
Therefore, even if the RN’s political offer is poor, how can we explain its success in recent elections?
Immigration has emerged as an issue in the French and European elections. The RN made it salient because it politicized it. He offered a simple reading to voters: “Economic questions, social questions, the concerns you have about education, health or purchasing power, this is partly the problem of immigration and if we resolve it, we will be able to answer these questions.”
And this is one of the keys to the RN vote, since immigration is used to mobilize a set of anger linked to economic security (housing, competition for social assistance, on the labor market), but also to the feeling of downgrading or abandonment. He gave them a political dimension. These are factors in the far-right vote.
What other anger has the RN been able to capitalize on over the years?
In addition to questions related to immigration in its social, economic and cultural dimension, the RN has worked extensively on purchasing power. It is today the number one concern of his voters. During the agricultural crisis, the RN tried to capture the anger of farmers. Since 2022, the energy crisis has become central and, for this electorate, the government has not provided a response. If we add to this insecurity and terrorism, as well as the role and presence of the State through its public services, we find the essential cocktail of the RN vote.
The RN program remains vague on the subjects it covers, in particular concerning the budget allocated to the various proposals. During his press conference on Wednesday June 12, Emmanuel Macron also castigated their economic program, which would cost “at least 100 billion euros per year”. But that doesn’t seem to worry his electorate…
Until now, the far-right party had not really asked itself how to respond to the questions of immigration, security or purchasing power which greatly worry its electorate. The RN embodied a force of opposition, of protest, not of government. He focused on opposing Emmanuel Macron to establish his electoral position and win
The far-right list is in good shape, reaching 31.5% of the votes cast during the European elections. Could the weaknesses of their program play a role during the legislative elections of June 30 and July 7?
We have reached a tipping point. Some French people say to themselves: “Finally, we tried everything, why not the RN?“ This weariness, coupled with anti-Macron anger, could constitute a sufficient electoral engine to bring the RN to power. And this, even if their program is very succinct and unconvincing.
Today, we know that RN voters will mobilize. They want to overturn the table. But will the party manage to broaden its electoral base? Perhaps the moderates, particularly on the right, more attentive to the weaknesses and ambiguities of the RN program, will have difficulty turning to a far-right candidate in the second round. This is where everything will play out.