The Assad regime in Syria fell on December 8 after more than half a century of unchallenged rule. A new page is opening for this country whose liberation from the yoke of terror could be synonymous with partition and divisions.
The speed and ease with which the dictatorship Syrian collapsed are disconcerting. No one has questioned the role of various powers. But it seems that it was Turkey, imbued with a form of neo-Ottomanism, which was at the forefront of this historic event which risks dividing Syria.
“ Now we cannot allow Syria to be divided again […]. Any attack on the freedom of the Syrian people, the stability of the new Syrian administration and the integrity of its territory will find us against it alongside the Syrian people “, declared the Turkish head of state Recep Tayyip Erdogan Tuesday December 10. An announcement which may surprise, as Ankara was involved in the fall of the Syrian regime, aware of the risk of dislocation, but focused on the Kurdish question, by providing equipment and logistics to the Islamist rebels of the Levant Liberation Organization (HTS) now in power in Damascus.
“ A real risk that foreign interference will continue »
“ One of the main challenges of the coming weeks for Syria will be to maintain its unity and territorial integrity and sovereignty, analyzes Karim Émile Bitar, associate researcher at IRIS, specialist in the Middle East. There is a real risk that permanent foreign interference will continue, including Türkiye which indeed played a leading role in the collapse of the Syrian regime, but also Israeli interference. »
Because today, the country has become a mosaic of areas controlled by different groups. And all the hypotheses are put forward as to what post-Assad Syria could be. If Abu Mohammed al-Joulanileader of the jihadist group HTS, manages to maintain the unity of the country as he did in Idlib, by establishing a form of Islamic totalitarianism, the Druze and Alawite minorities, and the few Christians still there, risk be pushed outwards, or else subject to a very strict control regime.
“ As for the Kurds, notes Fabrice Balanche*, specialist in the Middle East and lecturer at the University of Lyon 2, I think it’s a really bad start for them. [Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan wants to crush them. And since HTS is Erdoğan’s instrument, they will participate in the elimination of Rojava [Kurdistan syrien, NDLR]. » Unless the UNITED STATES are showing firmness towards Turkey and making it a red line.
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But the president-elect’s plan Donald Trump is to ultimately delegate the management of Syria to Turkey. The American encourages people not to get involved in “ mess » Syrian, while the administration of the outgoing president Joe Biden judges, on the contrary, that the vital interests of the United States are at stake. The fall of the Assad regime and the collapse of the Iranian axis – which also includes Palestinian Hamas, Houthi rebels in Yemen and militias in Iraq – represents a defeat for Moscow, an ally of Damascus since the Soviet era, but it It’s a victory for Washington, which had been hoping for it since 2011.
“ Trump will certainly want to negotiate with Russia, notes Karim Émile Bitar. We can even wonder if the fact that Russia abandoned the Assad regime and did not put up the slightest resistance is not part of some kind of deal. Does the Russia would have gotten something in return ? The same question could arise for Iran, primarily concerned with the survival of its own regime. » According to the American daily Washington PostSyrian fighters received about 150 drones as well as other covert support from Ukrainian intelligence agents weeks before the rebel advance that overthrew Bashar al-Assad.
“ Israel knew what was going to happen »
The fall of the Syrian regime of the Assad clan also represents a victory for Israel. It is through Syria that the Hezbollah Lebanese – who waged war alongside Assad for 13 years against HTS and Sunni rebels – were receiving weapons from Iran. In recent days, Tel Aviv has worked to methodically destroy all the infrastructure of the Syrian army, which remained the only multi-ethnic institution in the country (the only one in the Arab world to have had Christian chiefs of staff) despite the weight of the Alawites and corruption. This leaves today only confessional or ethnic militias that a potential future central State, the sole holder of legitimate force, risks not being able to demilitarize.
The HTS rebels had “ greeted » the massacre of October 7 and took up the cause of the Palestinians. But as soon as HTS took power in Damascus, Joulani wanted to reassure the United States and Israel that “ the new Syria understands their interests “. Today, the HTS leaders are very cautious and consider that the main enemy in their eyes is Iran.
Was Israel aware of the imminent fall of the Damascus regime? For Fabrice Balanche, since October 7, 2023, Israelis have realized that they are in an existential war and that we will absolutely have to react. The first reaction is to crush Hamas, then to neutralize Hezbollah At Lebanon. “ The third option was to bomb Iran, but that was still a big deal. », especially since the Tehran regime has ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel. “ The intermediate solution, quite effective, was to bring down the Syrian regime to break the Iranian axis and prevent the renewal of Hezbollah’s weapons stock. […]. Israelis know very well what is happening on the other side of their borders. Israel knew what was going to happen. »
Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday December 8 that it had ordered the army to “ take control » of the Golan buffer zone after the fall of the Syrian presidentthen affirming that the part of the Syrian Golan occupied and annexed by Israel belonged to his country “ for eternity “, a violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria. This outing earned him a scolding from Tehran: “ There is no doubt that what happened in Syria was the result of a conspiracy by the United States and Israel », assured Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei on December 11.
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A fragmentation of Syria could benefit Israel too, as it benefited the France when French general Henri Gouraud, who proclaimed the creation of Greater Lebanon in 1920, divided Syria into a mosaic of small states divided along sectarian lines. An essential element in French colonial policy in the Levant: dividing the territories to better control them.
“ For Israel, anything that can divide and maintain instability in the neighborhood helps avoid having a strong Sunni Syrian state that begins to claim the Golan », Affirms Fabrice Balanche. “ There are still many unanswered questions at this stage, but one of the main risks facing Syria is that of dislocation, fragmentation, into mini sectarian states, warns Karim Émile Bitar. This solution would not be viable and lasting, because in Syria there is a very great overlap, interpenetration of communities. But if the game of powers were to continue, there is a risk for the territorial unity of this country. »
For Karim Émile Bitar, there is a risk that, if there is no international pressure for Turkey and Israel to show more restraint, they could be tempted to maximize their advantage. “ Erdogan could be tempted to consolidate his authority in northern Syria to settle scores with certain Kurdish factions. And Israel continues the annexation of Mount Hermon, creating a buffer zone around the buffer zone, which is problematic to say the least. »
“ The devil awaits the Syrians at the other end of the tunnel »
Post-Assad Syria also represents an opportunity for the jihadists of the Islamic State group (EI), who could try to take advantage of potential chaos to reconquer territories and free its fighters imprisoned in the Kurdish zone. As soon as the fall of the Damascus regime was announced on Sunday December 8, the United States carried out more than 70 strikes on IS jihadist targets. “ The risk is that ISIS will carry out spectacular attacks against minorities, to sow chaos and destabilize Syria and plunge it back into civil war. Like he did in Iraq », analysis on RFI Asiem El Difraouidoctor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies, specialist in the international jihadist movement.
As for the Sunni countries in the region, and particularly in the Gulf, they might not view Turkey’s rise in power in Syria very favorably. which becomes a pro-Turkish protectorate », in the words of Fabrice Balanche. Thus, Riyadh could support the Sunni rebel groups in the South, competitors of HTS, precisely to avoid leaving the monopoly to Turkey, with the risk of a Libyan-style scenario. But ” what matters today for the Gulf countries is that there is stability in Syria and that Syria stops producing captagon, which is ruining their youth. »
HTS could also pose a threat to countries in the region by entrenching the idea that the Middle East could be reshaped. “ There are indeed countries which have reason to be worried today, such as the Jordan, explains Karim Émile Bitar. A large part of the members of the Trump administration consider that the true Palestinian state is Jordan. There are obviously also risks weighing on the Houthis in Yemen and on the Iranian regime itself. Will the Iranian regime manage to negotiate its own survival by changing its behavior or will it in turn be swept up in the turmoil? ? This is the question we will need to focus on in the coming weeks. »
For his part, researcher Fabrice Balanche questions the future of Lebanon, “ the one who should suffer the repercussions of the regime change in Syria because the Lebanese Sunnis helped by the Syrian jihadists and the Israelis will want to kill Hezbollah. And a weakened Hezbollah in Syria, we saw what that resulted in. A weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon too could reignite the civil war in the country. »
The fall of the bloodthirsty regime of Bashar al-Assad has galvanized a large part of the world, and above all the Syrians who have lived through more than fifty years of terror. But several antagonistic actors, with different agendas, will now have to come to an agreement with the Sunni Islamist group HTS, the latter calling on Syrians to unity and reconciliation, and refugees to return to the country. “ I hope I’m wrong, is sorry Adel Bakawanspecialist in the Middle East, but I believe that today the devil is waiting for the Syrians at the other end of the tunnel. »
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* “Lessons from the Syrian crisis”, ed Odile Jacob