The gap between Donald Trump and Kamala is tiny in the Swing states, these undecided states which will determine the outcome of the American presidential election. Polls, winning probabilities and analysis.
The home stretch of the campaign is underway. And to say the least, the outcome of this election will be close. Nationally, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris still leads the race. According to the latest studies of voting intentions, it totals 48.4% potential votes according to the270towins aggregatorDonald Trump is given to 47.2%. However, the most important results during the American presidential election are those observed by states. And after dominating the debates in recent months, Donald Trump sees Kamala Harris insistently return to the famous Swing states, notably in two of them: the Michigan and the Wisconsin.
Indeed, according to the American voting method, each state won guarantees a certain number of votes out of the 538 electors who vote to elect the American president. Most of the 50 states are won by a political party, but the “Swing states”, 7 uncertain states, swing to the right or to the left depending on the elections. The latter (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina) give a considerable advantage in ensuring access to power.
In the United States, the electoral atmosphere which reigns close to the election is also important. As recalled Voxfor the Democrats, the chances of seeing Kamala Harris win exist, but among the Republicans, the state of mind is more marked in favor of a certain victory for the septuagenarian. This climate indicated for example in 2020 that Joe Biden was going to win by a large margin (which was not the case), and that Donald Trump had no chance of winning in 2016. “Assumptions that are not worth much “, according to the media. On the other hand, “some point to purported clues about the outcome in non-polling measures, such as early voting numbers or prediction markets.” In fact, these prediction markets rather reflect preconceived ideas and could be distorted in 2024 by “a few Trump fans who bet big”, explains Vox. As it stands, the duel is currently too close to say with certainty the winner of this election.
This year, polls are extremely close in key swing states, according to RealClear Politics. The complex status of Florida leads us to include it in our article devoted to Swing states, with 30 major voters up for grabs, its weight is considerable in the race for the White House. This is why Linternaute.com decides to detail the issues in the 7 Swing states, as well as in Florida.
Voting intentions in swing states, as of 10/31/2024:
| States | Donald Trump in % | Kamala Harris in % |
| Arizona (11 major voters) | 49.3 | 47.6 |
| Nevada (6 major voters) | 48.5 | 47.6 |
| Wisconsin (10 major voters) | 48.1 | 48.4 |
| Michigan (10 major voters) | 47.5 | 48.3 |
| Pennsylvania (19 electors) | 48.1 | 47.8 |
| North Carolina (16 major voters) | 48.7 | 47.3 |
| Georgia (16 major voters) | 49.3 | 46.7 |
Probabilities of victory in each Swing state, as of 10/31/24:
| States | Donald Trump in % | Kamala Harris in % |
| Arizona (11 major voters) | 68.5 | 31.5 |
| Nevada (6 major voters) | 46.0 | 54.0 |
| Wisconsin (10 major voters) | 45.9 | 54.1 |
| Michigan (10 major voters) | 37.2 | 62.8 |
| Pennsylvania (19 electors) | 54.5 | 45.3 |
| North Carolina (16 major voters) | 61.7 | 38.3 |
| Georgia (16 major voters) | 67.1 | 32.9 |
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
If Wisconsin is presented as a Democratic stronghold, it was narrowly won by Donald Trump in 2016, before being recovered by Joe Biden four years later, in particular thanks to the vote of the suburbs and women, a sign of its strategic importance in the American presidential election. As a reminder, the Republican convention of July 2024 took place in Wisconsin, and the Vice-President of the United States Kamala Harris organized her first campaign meeting there, in Chicago, as if to try to establish the influence of the Democrats in this state. The vote could actually swing depending on the vote of the 180,000 unregistered Latino voters. The candidate who manages to convince them should win in this state.
Michigan(15 major voters)
This Midwestern state voted for a Democratic candidate for a long time, until the arrival on the political scene of Donald Trump. In 2016, the Republican won the day and won the 15 major electors of this industrial state. The Democrats regain control in 2020, but the result is expected to be extremely close this year. With a large Arab-American community, Joe Biden’s clear support for Israel could prove detrimental. Without focusing on the Republicans, this vote could be missing for the Democrats to win. Student and progressive youth also represent a main stake in the vote, they could abstain, still contesting the support of the United States for Benjamin Netanyahu. Will the change of candidate and Kamala Harris’ slightly firmer positions on Israel tip the scales in favor of the Democratic camp and push the undecided to vote? Hard to say.
Pennsylvania(19 electors)
If a triumph in Pennsylvania is not a guarantee of final victory, it certainly puts us on the right track. Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020… Which side will Pennsylvania lean towards in 2024? The fifth most populous state in the country will allow the winning candidate to win no less than 19 electoral votes. A state in which one in eight residents is food insecure. And the Democrats could well start with a slight advantage: Joe Biden, the former presidential candidate, grew up in the working-class town of Scranton, Pennsylvania. An attribute that the latter, including Kamala Harris, should highlight. For his part, Donald Trump is sparing no effort in this state, particularly by targeting rural and working-class regions.
Georgia(16 major voters)
After 30 years of Republican voting, Georgia switched to the Democratic side in 2020 by 11,800 votes, or 0.23 points difference. A vote which, like this year, will be largely determined by the political color of the city of Atlanta. With its suburbs, it represents half of the state’s population. African-American populations (30% of the state’s population) are now larger in this state, particularly in the suburbs. A notable development which pushed the rather Republican legislature of this state to adopt several laws related to the exercise of the right to vote. Controversial laws signed without debate by Governor Brian Kemp which put obstacles in the way of Georgia administrators. The fight promises to be tough to win the state’s 16 major voters.
Nevada (6 electoral votes)
During the last two American presidential elections, the inhabitants of the state of Nevada opted for the Democratic option. However, Nevada’s victory will not be a cakewalk for Joe Biden’s replacement, Kamala Harris. First, because this state has the third highest unemployment rate in the United States (5.2%), in other words, the record of the current president of the country in this area is not convincing in this region. , which could lead the electorate to dissociate itself from the Democrats. At the same time, the support of Latin Americans could tip the scales in one camp or the other in Nevada. In fact, the community represents no less than 20% of the state’s population. Which, here, could rather benefit Kamala Harris who has already demonstrated her attachment to this territory, where her competitor Donald Trump has already announced a reduction in regulations. As in all swing states, the result will be close.
Arizona(11 major voters)
In 2020, Joe Biden won with only 0.3 points ahead of Donald Trump in this state generally supported by the Republicans. With an exploding and diverse population, which has increased sevenfold in sixty years, Arizona is an extremely complex state in which the issues of immigration and abortion are burning issues. During Joe Biden’s mandate, the crossing of migrants at the border reached records, a natural avenue of communication for Donald Trump, considering carrying out “the largest expulsion operation” in the history of the United States, if he were to be elected to the White House, as he declared during his debate with Kamala Harris on Tuesday, September 10. On abortion, Republicans failed to reinstate an 1864 law to completely ban abortion in the state. Abortion could therefore be the tipping point for the vote in this Sun Belt state. While the Arizona legislature leans Republican, the governor is Democratic. The match should therefore be more than close between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to win the bet and the 11 major voters of this state
North Carolina(16 major voters)
If Donald Trump was clearly the winner in this state at the start of the year, the withdrawal of Joe Biden and the candidacy of Kamala Harris completely reshuffled the cards and gave hope to the Democratic camp. If the gap should be tiny between the two candidates, the task will still be difficult for the vice-president of the United States in a state which has only elected a Democrat twice in the last fifty years, including Barack Obama in 2008. In addition, more Republicans are registered to vote in North Carolina. On the other hand, Kamala Harris could count on a new strong presence in the State with the opening of 20 offices and the recruitment of 10,000 volunteers. The state’s rural communities are also being targeted by Democrats, after being neglected by Republicans. This population – residing in a rural area – constitutes more than 3 million people. In other words, if one party were to switch to the Democratic camp, North Carolina could support Kamala Harris.
Florida (30 electoral votes)
Has Florida become a Republican stronghold, and no longer really a swing state? On closer inspection, this statement is not completely false. Donald Trump seems to be widening an initial gap in the latest polls. The American real estate mogul won the state in the last two elections, in 2016 and 2020. The “strategic” state that Florida was in the early 2000s therefore seems to have changed status. A new trend which can be explained by demographic reasons. Indeed, recently, Florida has observed the arrival of a rather elderly population, over 65 years old, which today represents more than 21% of the total population of the State. This rather wealthy socio-professional category and its majority Republican vote can help explain the latest polls in this state.