The jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other allied armed groups have taken control of Aleppo after capturing several cities in Syria.
Several million Syrians are displaced as a result of the insecure situation and the civil war that has been going on since 2011.
– There is a potential scenario where several million more people could be forced to leave their homes inside Syria, says Alexander Atarodi.
Memories of IS violence in Syria
The armed groups in Syria are reported to be moving towards Hamah province. At the same time, many residents have memories of the IS terrorist movement’s violence in Syria, says Alexander Atarodi.
– It is not certain that people want to stay and be ruled by a form of IS-like caliphate that could arise when this coalition of terrorist groups moves south, he says.
Before the war broke out in Lebanon, just over a million Syrian refugees were in the country. Since then, several have returned to Syria, something that Alexander Atarodi describes as an absolute last resort.
Since the war intensified in Lebanon, roughly 450,000 people have crossed the border from Lebanon to Syria until the end of October, according to the UN agency UNHCR. About 70 percent of them were Syrians.
– Syria has nothing to offer people who return. In addition, it is dangerous, the regime has captured people and many have been hurt.
Neighboring countries can be pressured if refugee flows increase
Alexander Atarodi believes that the situation in Syria mainly risks increasing the number of internally displaced people. For those looking for escape routes out of the country, Lebanon, which has had a truce with Israel for a few days now, can once again become an option.
Many Syrians have previously applied to Turkey, but it is becoming increasingly difficult. The border is largely closed and the country has established a buffer zone in the northern part of Syria.
Other options are Iraq and Jordan, which previously accepted refugees from Syria, says Alexander Atarodi.
– It will be another burden on the migration system in the region to deal with these people. Eventually, there may be pressure on Turkey and its neighboring countries.