After a significant decline in 2023, the drop in greenhouse gas emissions in France shows signs of slowing down in 2024, with even a slight increase in the third quarter, driven by buildings and transport. In the third quarter, French emissions increased by 0.5% over one year, after a drop of 5% and 2.2% during the first two quarters, Citepa announced on Friday December 27, the organization mandated to draw up France’s carbon footprint.
Over nine months, emissions remain down 2.4%, excluding carbon sinks. But for comparison, last year, over the same period, the decline was 6%.
2023 concluded with a drop in emissions of 5.8% compared to 2022. The last year where emissions were increasing was 2021, with an increase of 6.4% due to the post-Covid recovery.
Worse record in 2024
Without going that far, 2024 should logically be a less good year in terms of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This slowdown “reminds us that we must not let our guard down”, even if “fortunately (it) still leaves us on the right trajectory”, underlined Friday on RTL the Minister of Ecological Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher.
“Given the efforts we have made over the last two years, we are not falling behind” on the objective of reducing France’s emissions by 55% by 2030, she added. “The trend over twelve rolling months is currently -3.1% (moving year),” indicates Citepa, whose data remains provisional for the time being.
And they do not include the absorption of CO2 by carbon sinks, such as forests and soils, which are highly degraded due to global warming and various pollution, but which are nevertheless essential in achieving France’s climate objectives.
Increase in emissions in buildings and transport
The slowdown in the decline in emissions over nine months comes from the construction and transport sectors, whose emissions have started to rise again in recent months. Thus in the third quarter, if the energy production and industry sectors still contribute to the dynamic reduction of emissions (-12.9%), an increase is observed for buildings as well as transport. Regarding transport, this increase is mainly due to an increase in road traffic emissions (+1.1% over the quarter).
In this sector, Agnès Pannier-Runacher once again raised the hypothesis of a tightening of the conditions governing the renewal of companies’ automobile fleets. “Companies buy half as many electric cars as households and therefore they are not playing the game. We will have to push them to play the game,” she declared.
But it is especially the construction sector which weighs down the balance sheet for the third quarter, with an increase of 11.8%. This strong rebound comes from “the increase in emissions associated with the heating of residential and tertiary buildings in September 2024”.
The airline sector and industry have polluted less
On the good news side, domestic air transport saw its emissions reduced by 4.1% in the third quarter, amplifying the decline already observed in 2023 (-3.5%). The decarbonization of electricity production continues, due to the reduced use of fossil fuels.
The manufacturing industry also continues to reduce its GHG emissions, even if the pace slows: after -2.8% in the second quarter, the decline is only 1.3% in the third. For agriculture, Citepa specifies that “only part of the changes in emissions from the sector” is estimated and that the “quasi-stagnation of emissions (+ 0.3%)” over the first nine months “remains a partial overview”.
“Maintain the decarbonization trajectory”
Citepa recalls that in 2023, all sectors had contributed to the drop in emissions. “This multifactorial dynamic must continue to maintain a decarbonization trajectory compatible with the objectives of the National Low-Carbon Strategy” (SNBC), underlines the organization.
The reduction trajectory to reach the new provisional target of 270 million tonnes (Mt) CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2030 excluding carbon sinks indicated in the draft SNBC 3 implies a necessary reduction of 4.7% per year (i.e. – 16 Mt CO2e/year on average) between 2022 and 2030, indicates Citepa.
France, which must align with the European objective of -55% emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 and which aims for carbon neutrality in 2050, had failed to respect its first carbon budget (2015-2018) and had revised its ambitions downwards in 2019. The results of SNBC 2 should be drawn up in 2025.