Cheaper fuel was one of the Tidö parties’ most important promises during the election campaign in 2022. There was talk of five to six kroner cheaper petrol and up to ten kroner cheaper diesel.
Now after the turn of the year, the fuel tax will be reduced and so will the reduction obligation. Therefore, SVT asked Christian Kopfer, commodity analyst at Handelsbanken, to calculate what the cost of petrol and diesel is expected to be in January.
– My calculations show that diesel prices will drop significantly more, somewhere between four and five kroner. While there will be a significantly smaller decline in petrol, barely a kroner, says Christian Kopfer.
Leads to more emissions
The reduction obligation was the previous government’s most important instrument for reducing emissions from traffic in Sweden. It means that petrol and diesel must be mixed with biofuel.
After the turn of the year, the reduction obligation will be 6 percent in both gasoline and diesel – from previously 7.8 percent in gasoline and 30.5 percent in diesel.
According to the government, it will increase emissions by roughly 4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide next year, and the reduced fuel tax by approximately 350,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide further.
Rising prices in 2024
Although it is predicted to become cheaper to refuel the car after the New Year, commodity analyst Christian Kopfer believes that the price of fuel will rise again.
– It depends a lot on what happens with the Swedish krona, of course, but if we look at the underlying commodity market, we expect gradually increasing fuel prices in 2024 because we believe in higher oil prices, says Christian Kopfer.
According to Christian Kopfer, the reasons for rising oil prices are partly that the world consumes more oil, and partly that there is less competition on the oil market. A few actors can therefore control the price.
So how long will the price cut last?
– It is very difficult to say exactly, but it will go quite quickly for petrol, because the reduction is significantly less there and longer for diesel because the reduction is noticeable there.