Now is not the time to tremble. While Donald Trump is preparing to unveil this Wednesday April 2 a salvo of new customs rights – his famous “Liberation Day” -, the European Union examines its own arsenal. And it is more provided than you think, reassures Tobias Gehrke, researcher of the European Council for International Relations (ECFR). This expert achieved a Meticulous inventory Rethorming measures to which Europeans can use in the face of American pressures. “Europe does not measure its strength […] She has playing cards, “he assures L’Express. Maintenance.
L’Express: The risk that Washington deprives Starlink Ukraine brutally recalled that the dependence of the old continent to certain American products exposed to pressures. After the customs duties of “Liberation Day”, Europe must prepare to be attacked tomorrow on other land, especially digital?
Tobias Gehrke. Donald Trump thinks that customs duties are the ultimate tool. He is ready to use it as a negotiation lever, but also as a wall. Use them to earn money and attract investors to the United States. Because he has planned significant tax reductions and has to finance them. But other measures could indeed aim for Europe in the future. Financial sanctions, in particular. Americans have used it a lot in the past. We will be faced with a much more disruptive and anti-European Trump administration, with techno-library nationalists who do not believe in alliances. This goes beyond trade.
Do you think Donald Trump could complicate our access to digital services?
It is a possibility. We are very vulnerable in terms of cloud and chips. Defense equipment is a first area in which Americans could exert technological pressures. Trump has already made statements on this subject. It may target Europe at many other levels. And Washington is likely to link the files to each other. If Europe reacts on the commercial level, Donald Trump could, for example, announce the withdrawal of certain military bases in Romania or Belgium. Or restrict our access to ia fleas. This makes negotiations complicated because unlike the United States, Europe has every interest in ensuring that economic and military files are treated separately.
If Trump targets our technological dependence, should we retaliate at this level or activate other levers like them?
Ideally, we will not come to these ends. Because if the impact of customs duties is fairly well estimated, this is much less the case for other levers within our reach. We must be careful. But it is important to make the Trump administration understand that we are mutually dependent. And that we can give them their blows and do damage. We are ready to shoot ourselves in the foot if necessary – but do not shoot ourselves in the head. Some in Europe think that it is not necessary to fight back and be content to wait for Boomerang’s return to the American economy. They are betting that customs duties will impact American consumers who will then require a change in policy. This is the optimistic scenario. But it is imperative to also have a strategy if it does not materialize. You can’t just wait. We have to show that we have playing cards.
What are the best cards in Europe vis-à-vis the United States?
The easiest measures to take relate to the exchange of goods because we know how it works. The problem is that we export more goods to America than we import. In addition, we have already used part of our cartridges. However, it is clear that the Trump administration will not stop there. We must therefore, as of now, study our other options. Service trade is a battlefield that makes sense because here it is the Americans who have a large surplus.
Europeans have never used this lever before so we do not precisely measure the impact of such measures. But the legal tools to do it exist. We must at least consider this scenario and identify the most anchored American actors in Europe. I see several, starting with financial services – banks, insurance companies, asset managers, etc. They have major interests in Europe. Without excluding them, a first possible retaliation measure would be to impose more constraints to them. For example local data storage, the hiring of Europeans or joint ventures with European actors. We could also tax them differently.
The second sector that can be targeted is that of Big Tech, Amazon, Meta, Apple, Microsoft and others. Americans only want one thing: that member states having implemented or announced the creation of digital taxes delete them. But we could do exactly the opposite and introduce a unified European tax. The third sector to watch closely is the pharmaceutical industry. Large American companies have settled in Europe to escape tax. They transferred their intellectual property to Ireland and the Netherlands. In recent years, they have also relocated part of their production to it. 75 % of American pharmaceutical imports now come from Europe mainly from Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium. We could threaten to tax the products they export to America as a reprisals.
What countries can alternative technological suppliers are interesting for the EU?
In advanced technologies, no one is really competing for the time with the Americans. And even if China is very advanced, Europe has no interest in depending too much either. We can work with India on certain subjects, such as Clean Tech. It is not such an easy partner, but its national interests are sometimes aligned with ours. Their efforts to create an Indian semiconductor industry can, for example, help us diversify our supplies. In any case, we should, in any case, look for a single ally that would meet all our needs, rather build with different countries, a multitude of partnerships, each on specific subjects.
What are our best technological assets in Europe?
Some are well known, such as the lithography machines of the Dutch company ASML. Europeans also have skills in very specialized machines, such as lasers, necessary for the semiconductor or quantum industry. We are leaders in certain chemicals and advanced materials, necessary for the flea industry. In the Defense field too, Airbus has a range of products that are necessary for the American defense industry. Europe does not measure its strength enough because each Member State is reluctant to share sensitive information on its national assets. Transparency at this level will run up much more effectively.
Would the United Kingdom be a relevant and reliable partner in the construction of this European digital sovereignty?
I think they can and I hope they will. Their assets could help us a lot. They have Arm in the field of semiconductors, a solid financial sector, leading universities and brilliant researchers. Admittedly, the British could be spared by the current trade war because they have no deficit or trade surplus with the United States. I hope, however, that the British government understands that the Americans will not be there. That they will always exert more pressure on other countries. And that the “special relationship” of the British with the United States will in no way protect them from these strong jerks. I think that cooperation between London and Brussels is being strengthened informally, behind closed doors. The security partnership that is being negotiated with the EU is a big step forward.
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