Each of his statements has something to worry about Europeans. President Donald Trump, launched in his trade war after the imposition of new customs duties against Canada, Mexico (finally announced as suspended for “a month” by the White House this Monday, February 3) and China, does not intend to save the European Union. True to his protectionist doctrine and his campaign slogan – America First –he plans to trigger a new price offensive in the coming weeks in the coming weeks against the 27.
On Sunday, on the move in Maryland, he in any case repeated this will, describing as “atrocity” the position of the EU with regard to Washington. “They do not take our cars, they do not take our agrifood products, they take almost nothing, while we take everything from them. Millions of cars, huge amounts of food and food products …” The billionaire says “not to have” calendar as to the implementation of customs duties towards the EU, but assured ads on the subject for “very soon”.
Commercial surplus favorable to the EU
Concretely, what can the European Union expect? Difficult to know, the movements of Donald Trump being sometimes unpredictable. The extent of the increase in these taxes will also be monitored to get a more precise idea of their consequences on the European economy. In any case, such measures could produce a new increase in inflation on both sides of the Atlantic. The European Union promised, on Sunday, to retaliate “firmly” if the tenant of the White House were to carry out his threats.
The 27 fear these potential new customs rights, as their economic ties with Washington are important. The United States and the European Union each constitute the main economic partner of the other. The European Commission provides detailed figures on exchanges between the two powers. In terms of trade in goods, the EU is indeed a winner of its relationship with the United States. Thus, in 2023, she exported across the Atlantic for 504 billion euros, against 347 billion euros in American goods. After this exercise, Europe therefore left it with a surplus of 187 billion euros.
However, a figure that does not take into account the exchange of services between the United States and the European Union. On this aspect, the configuration is reversed: Europeans import much more from the American market (396.4 billion euros in 2023) than they export on the other side of the Atlantic (292.4 billion of euros). In total, including goods and services, trade therefore represented the huge windfall of more than 1540 billion euros over the year 2023.
Germany first exporter to the American market
Europe, which devotes 16.7 % of its outdoor exports to the United States, can legitimately fear a redefinition of its commercial relationship with Washington. But the Americans, who export 18.6 % of their products sold abroad to the EU, are not safe from the consequences of retaliatory measures probably decided by the EU if Donald Trump went to acts . According to a report by the Consulting Cabinet Roland Berger, the announcement of new customs rights coupled with the Riposte of the EU-but also of China-could cost the United States $ 749 billion by 2029, Against $ 533 billion for Europeans.
What do the perverse effects of such a measure on the American market, the 27 EU members are above all concerned about the repercussions on their own economies. Some countries would be much more affected than others, due to their more or less important connections with the United States. According to statistics Eurostat, Germany, which exported more than 157 billion euros to the country to the country in 2023, especially in the automotive sector, has something to understand the “customs wall” wanted by Donald Trump. Then follow Italy (67 billion euros in goods exported to the United States), Ireland (51 billion) and France (43 billion).
But, by leaning on other data, more than the quantity of goods sent to American consumers, their share in trade in each country must also be taken into account. Some more reduced European nations could suffer from too much dependence in the United States. Thus, almost half (45.8 %) of Ireland exports outside the European Union is intended for the American market. For Finland, the second European country in the matter, it is more than a quarter (25.5 %).
Faced with American trade pressure, the European Union could be attempted to undertake the establishment of stronger economic attachments with other major economic powers. This is in substance the will expressed vis-à-vis China by the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, during the Davos Economic Forum (Switzerland), on January 21. “It is time to rebalance our relationship with China, in a spirit of equity and reciprocity,” said the leader, when Beijing was also inflicted new customs tariffs by Donald Trump.
Automobile and pharmaceuticals threatened
Despite everything, is there a share of truth in Donald Trump’s speech when he more specifically aims at European-American exchanges in terms of automotive and agrifood? Regarding the first area cited, the EU exported its borders in 2022 23 % of its cars produced to the United States. Still according to Eurostatit imported at the same time towards the Union 14 % of American cars (excluding EU). For agrifood products, The observation is more or less the same. The American market is indeed the second largest for Europeans, with 27 billion euros in exports in 2023, or 12 % of the total of these. On the other hand, the EU any than 11.7 billion euros in American foods, making it the 4ᵉ importer on the territory after Brazil, the United Kingdom and Ukraine.
Finally, some sectors may expect to be even more affected by the incidence of larger American customs duties. In addition to the automotive giants, the European pharmaceutical industry, an important exporter to the United States, could expect significant consequences on its activity. During his first mandate, Donald Trump had also expressed his desire to reduce links on this field, particularly in terms of medical research, in order to promote American patients, against European patients.
European leaders, gathered this Monday in Brussels in the presence of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for an informal defense, say they are ready to reply to the threats of Donald Trump. “If we were attacked on commercial subjects, Europe, as a power that is held, will have to be respected and therefore react,” said French president Emmanuel Macron. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeated that these new customs duties would be “bad for the United States, bad for Europe”.