the real motivations of the Houthis – L’Express

And international ships have continued to encounter these drones and missiles since mid-October. The Houthi rebels have indeed mobilized in defense of the Palestinians, asserting that “ships belonging to or dealing with the Israeli enemy will become a legitimate target” in the Red Sea. Including boats flying the French flag: on the night of December 9, the multi-mission frigate (FREMM) Languedoc had to fire Aster 15 anti-aircraft missiles to shoot down drones that were heading straight towards it. An unprecedented event for the French Navy. Two days later, the French fired again, this time to protect a Norwegian tanker. On December 16, an American destroyer had to shoot down 14 drones. These are just some of the attacks that took place near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, between Djibouti and Yemen, a 27 kilometer wide area that sees 40% of international trade pass through.

“For the Houthis, this is the ideal place for a demonstration of their strength,” explains Fabian Hinz. In fact, they are more than 1,600 kilometers from Israel and all drones and missiles launched in that direction are quickly neutralized. Their power of nuisance is much stronger in the Red Sea. Some 20,000 ships circulate each year on this maritime “highway” linking the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean. But this number should dry up very quickly. Several maritime trade giants, including the French shipowner CMA-CGM, have announced that they will no longer pass through there until the passage is “safe”.

But it can take a long time. Because it is not easy to really strike the Houthi rebels, even if the French Minister of Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna affirmed on December 17 that “cannot remain without a response”. “These attacks remain low risk for them. They don’t really have much to lose,” says Asher Orkaty, historian specializing in the region and researcher at Harvard University. “They do not fear significant reprisals. The Saudis have already bombed almost all the military sites,” he recalls. Since 2015, Riyadh has led a state coalition fighting against rebel control of the country and trying to restore the recognized government. “So there is very little military infrastructure left exposed. Many of them are in densely populated civilian areas, following the same approach as Hamas.”

Same methods as Hamas, Iranian weapons, and similarities with Hezbollah: all elements which remind us that the Houthis are indeed part of the “axis of resistance” led by Tehran to oppose Israeli-American domination in the region. Beyond the methods and the anti-American ideology, there are also similar roots in these movements. “Hezbollah represents the marginalized populations of Lebanon, and Hamas represents the marginalized populations of Gaza. The Houthis represent the marginalized populations of the northern highlands of Yemen who have not benefited from economic and political investment for forty years” , recalls Asher Orkaby. Their revolt was in fact born in the 2000s from frustration with the lack of investment in this area on the part of the central government in Sanaa, after the unification of the country in 1990. This conflict with socio-economic roots has continued to worsen, to turn into a real civil war since 2014, then into a regional conflict with the involvement of Saudi Arabia since 2015. For their part, the Houthis are supported by Iran.

The support of the Islamic Republic of Iran, led since 1979 by a Shiite religious power, comes in part from the fact that the Houthis are Zaidi, a branch of Shiism, in a country with a large Sunni majority. But also in a more opportunistic way because Iran has an interest in supporting all groups likely to disrupt governments that are hostile to it. Bernard Haykel, a researcher at Princeton University, said the Houthis do not have the technology to act entirely alone, and the Iranians are likely to direct them in deciding which ships to attack. “This is part of the strategy of “proxies” launched like the others to put pressure on America, on Saudi Arabia, on the West, on Israel…” While Hezbollah and Iran have shown themselves very measured in their attitude since October 7, for fear of Israeli or American reprisals, the Houthis are the least exposed in the region and can therefore assume the role of disruptive agents. “They are capable of attacking many more ships,” assures the researcher.

Furthermore, given the internal situation in Yemen, the Houthis have every interest in these actions. In Sanaa, there were numerous demonstrations of support for the Palestinians, and this is a way for the Houthis, who are Shiites representing only 5 to 10% of the population, to establish their legitimacy over a majority Sunni population, recalls Bernard Haykel. “Especially since the humanitarian situation has never been so bad. The UN World Food Program has announced an upcoming suspension of food aid due to the lack of an agreement with the authorities.” “There is something very immoral in the mobilization of resources while the population is dying of hunger,” laments Asher Orkaby. “However, we must not forget that it is as much a question of internal Yemeni politics as it is of regional dynamics. “, adds the researcher. Indeed, he explains, before October 7 the Houthis were close to an agreement with Saudi Arabia, which, as all the experts confirm, wishes to free itself from this conflict. This new pressure allows them to be in a position of strength to negotiate peace. It is perhaps from this internal dynamic that the end of the attacks will come. Otherwise they have no reason to stop, although as Fabian reminds us Hinz, the rebels have a large and extraordinary arsenal given their power, and moreover provided free of charge by the Iranians. Unless, according to Bernard Haykel, one of their more radical actions “pushes the Israelis, the Americans, or even the Saudis, to attack them directly.”