The House of Representatives of the US Congress returned to work on Tuesday from the summer break. Primarily the Speaker leading the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy decided to raise the stakes in Washington and ordered the opening of an official criminal investigation by the president Joe Biden of actions.
McCarthy based the investigation on the business dealings of the Biden family. Republicans suspect President Biden’s son Hunter Biden having gotten well-paid jobs some years ago with the help of his father. McCarthy said that a “culture of corruption” has been revealed around the Biden family.
In reality, no evidence of corruption has been found so far in judicial or congressional investigations. However, Republicans now want to expand the investigation.
Read more on the subject: Joe Biden already had time to hope that his son would disappear from the public eye, but Hunter Biden’s legal troubles will forcefully become part of the election campaign
The start of the investigation is also the first step towards a possible official criminal charge against Biden. The President can be impeached by a majority vote of the House of Representatives.
After the indictment, there would be an official criminal trial in Congress on the Senate side. If two-thirds of the senators found the president guilty, the president would have to resign.
However, the impeachment of Biden is only theoretically possible. Democrats have a majority in the Senate and are not out to overthrow a Democrat president.
So why did McCarthy end up opening an investigation?
The radical wing controls a weak speaker
McCarthy reiterated throughout the summer that the investigation into Biden would not begin without the support of the majority of the House of Representatives.
Republicans have a nice majority in the chamber, 222-212, so almost every Republican should have supported the investigation.
However, the representatives of the moderate wing of the Republicans have opposed the investigation, which looks like a far-fetched political chase in the eyes of many unaffiliated voters in addition to the Democrats.
McCarthy didn’t have the necessary votes in his pocket, but he opened the investigation anyway.
With a narrow Republican majority, McCarthy needs the support of nearly every Republican representative to remain speaker.
The majority of Republicans pursuing radical right-wing politics belong to the Freedom Caucus congressional group, which has 45 congressmen. Over the summer, several representatives of the group have promised to withdraw their support from McCarthy if the investigation is not opened.
McCarthy humbled himself before the Freedom Caucus to maintain his place as a leader, albeit a weak one.
– This does not speak well of McCarthy’s position. He clearly acted differently from what he had said just a moment ago that he would do, assesses the researcher of the Foreign Policy Institute Maria Lindén.
Just a couple of weeks ago, McCarthy stated that the investigation would only start after the majority of the room voted in favor of it.
– There is no impression that he feels sure of his own place. It’s more that it’s windy at the top and he’s desperately trying to hold on, says Lindén.
The right wing wants more
The opening of the corruption investigation was a significant concession from McCarthy to the right wing of the party, but for many it is still not enough.
Immediately following McCarthy’s announced investigation, for example, Congressman Matt Gaetz went on to talk about how McCarthy is still too weak.
McCarthy’s position is further complicated by the fact that Congress should negotiate the federal budget by the end of September.
The right wing of the Republicans wants radical cuts to the budget. For example, many want to stop military support for Ukraine, and refuse to vote for the planned defense budget.
Searching for a compromise with the Democrats is not considered good, so McCarthy’s future as Speaker and the formation of the budget depends a lot on the votes of the right wing.
Based on yesterday’s speeches, it is not enough for the right wing to start an official criminal investigation, but they want more concessions from the speaker in order to agree to support the budget.
According to Lindén, despite McCarthy’s concessions, his own position continues to be very uncertain. The success or failure of the budget negotiations could ultimately determine McCarthy’s future as Republican leader.
– This opening of the investigation was not a shortcut to happiness for him, says Lindén.
The investigation can be long
In practice, the opening of a criminal investigation means that the three Republican-led committees in the House of Representatives will get more powers to investigate. Republicans have said they want, for example, to examine Biden’s bank records.
At the same time, Republicans are trying to find any electoral weapons against Biden for next year. Lindén estimates that the Republicans will continue to dig for a long time, because in this way the shadow of doubt can be maintained.
– It may very well be that this investigation is being carried out for a long time. So far it appears that there is nothing to be found. Now the Republicans have an awfully big threshold to say stop the investigation. It would give the impression that Biden is innocent, says Lindén.
Only Biden knows if he needs to worry
Recent opinion polls predict next year’s presidential election will again be a tight race between the Democratic and Republican candidates. The most likely scenario is Biden and the previous president Donald Trump’s revenge.
Trump has supported Biden’s impeachment for a long time. Trump himself was impeached twice, the president of Ukraine to Volodymyr Zelensky pressure in 2019 and inciting a riot in the Congress building in 2021.
In the case of Biden, however, Republicans are considering indicting him for actions during Biden’s vice presidency (2011–2017). The investigation is still primarily focused on the actions of Biden’s son Hunter, and no evidence of the alleged corruption has been found. To many voters, the investigation may seem petty.
Lindén estimates that the investigation will not necessarily have a big impact on Biden’s support. However, Biden may benefit if the evidence promised by the Republicans does not start to be found.
However, Lindén adds that the 80-year-old Biden’s endurance in the campaign fields is a question mark and the deepening investigation may eat away at his endurance.
In addition, the investigation may veer off into unexpected directions. For example, the former foreign minister Hillary Clinton actions were investigated after the 2012 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi in Libya.
In the investigation, it was discovered in passing that Clinton had sent emails from her personal address, which proved to be a burden in the 2016 presidential race.
– If any issues emerge during the investigation, all political benefit will be taken from them, says Lindén.
The decisive thing is whether Biden really has the skeletons in the closet that the Republicans are looking for. If not, the investigation could turn against Republicans.
– Biden is in a different position than any of us. Only he himself knows if there is anything to find there, says Lindén.
You can discuss the topic until Friday 15 September 2023 at 23:00.