The procedure for Macron’s dismissal was rejected by the National Assembly’s Law Committee, but another body may still allow the text to move to the next stage and perhaps be voted on.
This is a clear brake on the dismissal of Emmanuel Macron. This Wednesday, October 2, the proposed resolution aimed at initiating the procedure for the dismissal of the President of the Republic, tabled by La France insoumise (LFI), was rejected by the overwhelming majority of the Law Committee of the National Assembly. The proposal for the dismissal of Emmanuel Macron supported by 81 rebellious deputies, ecologists and communists came up against the first truly decisive step in the Law Committee.
The text received the necessary support thanks to the left when it was launched in early September, and it was deemed admissible by the executive office of the National Assembly on September 17… again thanks to the left. The forces of the New Popular Front dominate the executive office of the hemicycle and were able to easily impose their support for the text to move it to the next stage. But now things are complicated, because with the exception of LFI and a few ecologists or communists, very few elected officials support the idea of dismissing Emmanuel Macron, even within the opposition forces.
LFI initiated the dismissal procedure, provided for by article 68 of the Constitution, considering that the refusal of the Head of State to appoint Lucie Castets to Matignon constitutes “a serious breach of the duty of respect for the will expressed by the universal suffrage. The left actually came out on top in the last legislative elections. But the presidential camp sees it “a declaration of war on our institutions”, when the National Rally (RN) denounces an “attempt to smoke out” the “extreme left” to make people forget “its multiple compromises with the macronie”. Even on the left, the dismissal of Emmanuel Macron is not unanimous: the Socialist Party (PS) opposes it. If he agreed to judge the text admissible during the executive committee, he has already announced not to vote for the text in the event of examination in the Assembly.
A “no”, but one last chance for impeachment
These oppositions were expressed in the Law Commissions. The 73 deputies of the commission had to decide on the merits and merits of the procedure to find out whether the President of the Republic committed one or more breaches incompatible with the exercise of his mandate. And the majority said no. She therefore opposes the vote on the text in the National Assembly and, in fact, the meeting of Parliament in the High Court, the only configuration in which the dismissal of the head of state can be officially adopted.
The decision of the Law Commission is a significant obstacle to the LFI initiative, but it does not put an end to it. Despite the commission’s opinion, it is up to the conference of Presidents of the National Assembly to decide whether the text can move to the next stage: the vote in the hemicycle. A decision must be made within 13 days from this Wednesday, October 2. The Conference of Presidents brings together the president and vice-presidents of the hemicycle, the presidents of the various parliamentary committees as well as the presidents of each political group.
A very limited chance of success
The members of this conference are mainly opposed to the impeachment procedure, the number of opponents even reaches 18 people out of 28, but this is counting the votes of four presidents who have since been appointed ministers in the Barnier government and who do not can therefore no longer sit in the Assembly. If these positions go to elected officials from the same political families the score will be identical, but if they return to the left the situation could change.
Still, the chances of the Conference of Presidents supporting the procedure are low: the NFP has only 8 votes if the Socialists support the text and 6 if the latter oppose it as they have indicated. The reinforcement of 4 votes with the replacement of ministers would not be enough to have a majority, even in the best case scenario with 12 votes at best. Finally, there remain the voices of the two members from the Liot group. The latter have not made their position official, but being from the center or center-right they seem more inclined to vote against the dismissal of Emmanuel Macron.
Even if the Conference of Presidents agrees to let the impeachment procedure reach the next stage: the vote in the Assembly and the Senate, the text would have to gather two thirds of the votes in each of the two chambers, before obtaining 609 out of 925 during the assembly of Parliament in the High Court. A highly improbable hypothesis given the opposition of the presidential coalition, the right, the extreme right and part of the left.