Known for his green fiber since the 1970s, Prime Minister Michel Barnier should tell “the truth” about France’s ecological debt this Tuesday during his general policy speech to the National Assembly.
Michel Barnier is committed to telling “the truth, firstly about the financial debt and the ecological debt which today already weighs heavily on the shoulders of our children”, during his handover of power with Gabriel Attal, the September 5 last year. This sentence, which rather went under the radar on the day it was pronounced, highlights the Prime Minister’s desire to tackle the issue head on, and to make this ecological debt, the country’s energy independence, and ecological transition, major issues of his mandate? Response this Tuesday during the general policy speech of the new tenant of Matignon.
For their part, environmental NGOs are calling for “putting the ecological transition back at the top of the political agenda”. Gathered in front of the National Assembly this Monday, several organizations such as the Climate Action Network, WWF, Greenpeace, France Nature Environnement, Oxfam and the Cler network expected a lot from Michel Barnier’s declaration: “We are impatiently awaiting the general policy declaration. The NGOs refuse any defeatism, we are more mobilized than ever for a combative year. Every tenth of a degree counts,” declared Anne Bringault, director of programs at the Climate Action Network during a press conference.
Ecological debt is slowing down, but France is still behind
To better understand the situation in which France finds itself, it is appropriate to delve into the figures. In the first half of 2024, France reduced its CO2 emissions by 3.6% compared to last year. Conversely, the public deficit should reach 5.6% of GDP in 2024 according to the latest estimates from Bercy, while the initial finance law expected 4.4%. Under these conditions, Michel Barnier’s ambitions in terms of reducing ecological debt could be put to the test.
As a reminder, ecological debt can be defined as the legacy of present generations to those of the future, or the excess use of the planet’s resources compared to what it can produce. In other words, the climate of our descendants will only be the result of the choices we currently make in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. And today, France’s climate debt is climbing, albeit less quickly, but it continues to increase: 350 million tonnes of CO2 released last year, compared to 500 million 20 years ago. To achieve carbon neutrality, which is close to an ideal situation, the balance of tons of CO2 released and tons removed must be equal to 0.
“If we estimate the cost of damage caused by the release of an additional ton of CO2 into the atmosphere at 100 euros, the rate of annual increase in climate debt has fallen from 50 billion euros in 2005 to just a little less than 38 billion”, currently, indicates The Conversation. Despite a rather positive trend, the objective of carbon neutrality in 2050 cannot be achieved. The EU has set the objective of a 55% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2030. If the observed trend of -2% per year since 2002, as recalled by The Conversation, continues consistently, France will reach 325 million tonnes of CO2 released in 2030, more than the 270 expected. With such a trajectory, it would be necessary to double the annual rate of decline over the next 7 years, before the intermediate deadline of 2030, which appears almost impossible. This is why Michel Barnier has no real choice but to make this subject one of the key components of his general policy speech.
Savings and choices that are too penalizing?
As early as 1990, Michel Barnier published “Everyone for everyone, the ecological challenge” published by Stock. An astonishing publication for a right-wing politician, ecology not necessarily being one of the party’s ultimate priorities. For him, it was already “possible to place this debate (…) above partisan divisions and the usual quarrels”. A speech which particularly echoes the current political sequence. Fractured National Assembly, government in which political sensitivities clash… Michel Barnier could appear as a “rather green” Prime Minister, by trying to accelerate the ecological transition.
Project manager in the office of the Minister of the Environment Robert Poujade in 1973 then Minister of the Environment from 1993 to 1995 under the Edouard Balladur government, Michel Barnier initiated the “polluter pays” principle in the 1990s. , a legal principle enshrined in the Environmental Code according to which “the costs resulting from measures to prevent, reduce and combat pollution are borne by the polluter”. The Barnier fund, exceptional aid granted to communities in the event of a natural disaster, is also to the credit of the new head of government. Actions which suggest that Michel Barnier could leave an important place for the ecological subject during his general policy speech.
Be careful, in reality, the situation is not ideal. The General Secretariat for Ecological Planning (SGPE) is certainly retained by Michel Barnier (created in 2022 by Emmanuel Macron), “but the one who manages this SGPE is no longer politically attached to the Prime Minister’s office. In practice, we will see if there is a loss, or not, of influence”, asks Yaël Goosz, head of the political department of France Inter. In addition, note that Agnès Pannier-Runacher, Minister of Ecological Transition, has lost housing, biodiversity as well as transport, “that’s a lot!”, recognizes Yaël Goosz. Also, the Green Fund allowing local authorities to accelerate their ecological transition will be cut by 1.5 billion euros. Precisely, this type of savings raises questions for the future: “There is a need to quantify and finance the transition over time”, insists Alexis Monteil-Gutel, co-director of the Cler network, in the columns of France Info.
Michel Barnier will also be expected on questions of energy renovation (1 billion euros less for dedicated aid) and renewable energies. Precisely, the obstacles to the development of renewables have not been removed by the “acceleration” law. This could create a significant risk of a deficit in carbon-free electricity by 2035. The bet of “all nuclear” or at least the massive development of nuclear power will not be able to remove this risk either. Discussions will have to be held to decide and arbitrate the role of nuclear power in the energy transition. Is investment in nuclear power harmful to renewables? Does he leave enough room? Questions that Michel Barner will have to answer. The end of sales of new thermal cars normally planned for 2035, the greening of the automobile fleet and the weakening of forest carbon sinks which causes the storage capacity of forests to fall despite the increase in their surface area could also be part of the debate and themeslined during the general policy speech of the tenant of Matignon, this Tuesday, October 1, 2024 from 3 p.m.