The Russian security apparatus is capable of defeating Yevgeni Prigozhin, but President Putin’s prestige has taken a bad blow, writes ‘s Russia correspondent Heikki Heiskanen.
MOSCOW The long-simmering power struggle got out of the hands of Russia’s rulers on Friday.
First, the head of the Wagner mercenary company, a businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin published a video leak in which he questioned not only Russia’s military leadership, but also the rationale for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.
Prigozhin had been in a public war of words with the Minister of Defense for a long time Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov against, but now some limit was crossed.
In the evening, Prigozhin accused the Russian forces of launching a rocket attack on the camps of the Wagner forces in the rear. Russian authorities deny the information.
Then Prigozhin announced that his troops would go on a “justice march” to overthrow the traitorous war leadership, namely Shoigu and Gerasimov.
It is very unclear how large the armed force behind Prigozhin really is.
Prigozhin did not say that he would attack the president Vladimir Putin against. He has said that the Ministry of Defense is deceiving the President. Inevitably, the rebellion calls into question Putin’s leadership.
According to Prigozhin, his Wagner forces have advanced to the Rostov Region and its capital, Rostov-on-Don, which is adjacent to the territories occupied by Russia in Ukraine.
A video has been published on the Telegram channel close to Wagner, in which Prigozhin meets the Deputy Minister of Defense in Rostov Junus-Bek Yevkurov and Deputy Chief of Military Intelligence Vladimir Alekseev.
In the video, Prigozhin says that his troops will besiege Rostov and advance to Moscow until they capture Shoigu and Gerasimov.
It is unclear at the time of writing thiswhat exactly is the situation in the strategically very important city of Rostov-on-Don.
If the Wagner forces have really succeeded in taking over the southern city with more than a million inhabitants, or even parts of it, the situation is both dangerous and embarrassing for the Russian authorities.
Photos of Rostov have become public, showing armed forces taking up positions around the headquarters of the Southern Military District, for example – and it is not entirely clear whose forces these are.
The measures taken by the Russian authorities are telling that the authorities take the situation very seriously.
The Russian leadership is no longer able to hide the situation from the citizens, even if it wanted to.
The security service FSB has announced a criminal investigation against Prigožin. The charge is organizing an armed rebellion.
And a general valued by nationalist circles Even Sergei Surovik that the general Alekseev have appealed to the Wagner fighters in public videos not to take part in the rebellion.
The meeting with Prigozhin indicates that the Russian authorities still want to resolve the situation through talk instead of violence.
The governor of the Rostov region has urged citizens to stay indoors and not to go to the center of the region’s capital, Rostov.
The governor of the Voronezh region, on the other hand, has urged citizens to avoid the M4 highway, because military equipment moves there.
In the capital, Moscow, the mayor By Sergei Sobyan said that anti-terrorist measures are being taken in the city.
Footage of armored vehicles and military vehicles passing through the center of the capital circulated on social media.
Putin is protected by a large and multi-layered security apparatus. It seems highly unlikely that it would suddenly switch sides to a political entrepreneur and shady businessman like Prigozhin.
It is more likely that Prigozhin went too far and could not turn back. He apparently overestimated his ability to challenge the Ministry of Defense.
In any case, the Russian leadership is now paying a heavy price for trying to evade and conceal the true costs of the war, using as its instrument a private army assembled by an obscure businessman.
An internal skirmish in the middle of a war further erodes the image that the war against Ukraine is proceeding “according to plan” or that the situation is under Putin’s control.
Prigozhin’s rebellion makes the president look weak: He did not discipline Prigozhin in time, but mostly watched from the sidelines the increasingly heated rhetoric of the businessman against the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff.
The open mutiny of the Wagner forces can also contribute to weakening the morale of the Russian forces at the front, just when Russia should be repelling the Ukrainian counterattack.