It will soon be decided whether a former US president will be convicted of a crime for the first time.
The outcome is uncertain, but it could end with Donald Trump being locked up.
The political price in this fall’s presidential election could also be high – even if only a small percentage of supporters abandon him.
When Donald Trump in March 2023 became the first former US president to be charged with a crime, many in the US speculated that it would then negatively affect support for him. They got them all wrong.
The trial, which has now come to an end in New York, concerns the first of a total of four prosecutions that have been brought. Nor have the others – which deal with more serious crimes – caused Republican voters to hesitate.
As Trump’s legal problems grew, his lead over his main opponents in the primary campaign grew. In the end, Trump was left alone and is expected to be officially named the Republican candidate at the party’s convention in Milwaukee in July.
160 days left
With 160 days to go until the Nov. 5 presidential election, it’s currently looking even, according to a compilation of opinion polls. The political site RealClearPolitics stated during the last day of the New York trial that Trump had a narrow advantage with 47.5 percent while Joe Biden had 46.4 percent. Several recent polls have also shown that Trump is leading in most of the seven key states that could decide the election.
What price Trump will have to pay to atone for his crimes if he is convicted in New York, we will only know when the jury has finished its deliberations. If it is “guilty” that is announced in the courtroom in lower Manhattan, it is then the judge who decides the punishment. Jail is among the options, as are house arrest, fines, probation and community service.
“Every vote can be significant”
Just over a year after the first indictment was announced, fewer people today dare to speculate that a conviction will endanger Trump’s prospects in the election. But some opinion polls suggest that the political price may be high.
In an ABC News/Ipsos poll in May, 16 percent of Trump voters said they would reconsider their support if convicted and 4 percent said they would no longer support him. Another poll from Quinnipac University found that 6 percent of Trump voters saw themselves as less likely to vote for him.
The numbers may seem low. But every vote could be significant for Trump if he is to succeed in his plan to make a comeback in the White House. Not least in the critical key states.