During the first five months of the year, 105 shootings took place in Sweden, a 30 percent decrease compared to the same period last year. But something has happened.
According to police figures, 19 shootings took place in the first two weeks of June. Since then, it has been shot another 19 times, according to the magazine Quarterly database.
It remains extremely fragile. We saw trends in February and March, then it died out. Now we see tendencies again. We will see if it continues or if it ebbs, says Jale Poljarevius, head of intelligence in police region Mitt, and states that violence has historically escalated during the summer.
Police warn that children on summer vacation, without the safety net of school and parents who have to work, are vulnerable to the gangs’ hunt for new shooters.
Hooked
Quarter has reported that many of the more than 150 people convicted of violent or weapons offenses with evidence from the encrypted chat services Encrochat, Sky ECC and Anom have already been released or will soon be released.
In some areas, a large number of high-profile criminals disappeared on a single board. When they are released and want to re-establish themselves, there are great risks – especially in the summer, according to Poljarevius.
Some have come out in our region, which is worrying.
Encrodömda has also been released in West Sweden, but there is no immediate concern for that particular group. When leading actors are released, the same analysis always takes place, says Jens Ahlstrand, head of intelligence in police region West.
– We look at what area they come from, how important they are, what conflicts they had with them once upon a time and whether they intend to act on them.
Travel to home countries
In southern Sweden, many sentences have concerned narcotics rather than violent and weapons crimes, says intelligence chief Mats Karlsson. He also believes that previous experiences have made the region better prepared.
I would argue that even before Encrochat we had a better ability to follow conflicts and central individuals compared to many others.
In the South region, the police have for many years noted another summer trend: that the criminals’ holiday plans have a major impact on the level of violence.
Some of them, who originate in other countries, go there over the summer. Then we notice a big difference, a greater calm, in our vulnerable areas. In the second year when they are still in Sweden, they become messier.