The planet could change irreversibly within 5 years

Several major tipping points of our planet will probably be reached with +1.5°C of warming, according to a conference given for the European Commission. However, according to the World Meteorological Organization, this threshold may be reached within the next five years.

” Crossing tipping points can lead to irreversible changes in Earth »Such is the conclusion of a conference of scientists gathered before the European Commission on 7 June. The tipping points from climate are defined by the IPCC like a ” threshold which, when crossed, leads to great changes, often irreversible” : the melting of the ice caps of the’Antarctic and Greenland, the deforestationthe disappearance of key species within the biodiversityamong others.

Negative and irreversible tipping points within 5 years

The biggest changes will come abruptly, not gradually. Without a drastic reduction in our emissions of greenhouse gaslimit the global warming at 1.5°C will be impossible, as announced the IPCC report last April. To achieve this, we would have to reduce our emissions by 43% by 2030, according to the United Nations. But according to one of the speakers at the conference, Johan Rockström, director of Potsdam Climate Institute, it is not enough to limit the rise in temperatures to +1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, in fact they do not even have to be reached. ” By already reaching +1.5°C, we risk experiencing irreversible changes to certain unique and essential ecosystems. » As Petteri Taalas, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization, recalled last May ” 1.5°C is not just another statistic. It is an indicator of the point at which the impacts of climate change will have harmful consequences for humans and the Planet”.

However, it should be remembered that we have already crossed the threshold of +1.2°C in global warming at the start of 2022. According to the UN, there is a 50% chance that the rise in temperatures will reach or exceed 1.5°C within five years, compared to that of pre-industrial levels. Predictions for the period from 2022 to 2026 oscillate between exactly 1.1 and 1.7°C of global warming. The fact that the next five years will be warmer than the past five years is a virtual certainty according to the World Meteorological Organization.

Positive tipping points that can also change our future

But scientists at the conference reminded members of the European Commission that the global warming was not inevitable, since some large-scale actions could have a very beneficial impact. Because if there are many negative tipping points, there are also positive tipping pointssuch as phasing out coal-fired power plants altogether and investing in energies clean. As David Mair of the European Commission’s research center wisely points out, ” it is not enough to convince citizens of the reality of climate change, it is a political problem and we need politicians to solve it”.