It is the last day of the campaign before the vote for the second round of the legislative elections, on Sunday. The period between the two rounds was marked by incidents, altercations, insults against citizens, but also physical violence against candidates from all sides, all signs of a tension exacerbated by the political stakes of this election where the future of France will be at stake. The first question is whether the RN will obtain an absolute majority?
3 min
The next day, everything will depend on the National Rally’s score. If it reaches 289 deputies or comes close, then Emmanuel Macron will have to appoint Jordan Bardella as Prime Minister and he will go to Matignon to form a government. The president of the RN, who spent his week trying to mobilize the French people to give him this absolute majority, is in the starting blocks: ” My government is ready, there are personalities from the National Rally in this government, but there are also personalities who come from the Republicans, who come from the right, who come from civil society. “.
This option is that of cohabitation with Emmanuel Macron, probably without concession.
A coalition with whom?
But there is another option, that on July 7 no party will have the majority. This is what Emmanuel Macron hopes for, and Gabriel Attal who, on the evening of the first round, spoke of a ” plural majority ” as the alternative to the absolute majority that only the RN can obtain, a hypothesis against which the second round campaign on the left and in the presidential camp was organized. This ” new deal ” will have to generate a new way of working, according to the Prime Minister: ” Everyone will have to reinvent their way of working with others. Those who are not in this frame of mind after the legislative elections will be responsible for a form of blockage in the country. “.
Without a coalition, there is no solution to form a government and make the Assembly work, so that would be the clarification resulting from the dissolution.
But a coalition with whom? The ” Republican forces » : central bloc, non-Ciottist LR, socialists, ecologists, but not the extremes. So exit LFI, specified Emmanuel Macron and Gabriel Attal, even if to block the RN, the strategy of withdrawing from the second round included the Insoumis. But how to govern without them, the main group of the New Popular Front. On the left, this coalition option is also infusing minds. The head of the ecologists Marine Tondelier, the leader of the communists Fabien Roussel are considering it, like Raphaël Glucksmann, favorable to the « majorities of projects “.
” That is going to take time “
On paper, the option of a coalition is conceivable, in political reality, it will be difficult to build. A Macronie executive believes that ” that is going to take time “, says he is thinking about it with others. He thinks that it is not out of the question that, in the meantime, Emmanuel Macron will ask Gabriel Attal to stay at Matignon to deal with current affairs, even if logic would dictate that he resign once the result is known. Unless the president chooses to form a government of technicians. Whatever option Emmanuel Macron takes, the choice of the next Prime Minister will be decisive and complicated. The only certainty is that nothing is certain…
Read alsoLegislative elections in France: a tense end to the campaign