Expectations are high, as are the risks of disappointment. COP28, which opens Thursday, November 30 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, has its share of challenges: how to find an agreement on the exit from fossil fuels while the president of this international summit, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, heads Abu Dhabi’s national oil company, ADNOC? How can we restore trust between the countries of the North and those of the South in a world fractured by conflicts? Where can we find the $100 billion needed to finance the green transition for emerging countries? During the two weeks of this COP, hot issues should accumulate. “The private sector must show itself to be present and up to the task,” argues COP28 Director General Majid al-Suwaidi in L’Express.
On the eve of this major summit, which should bring together more than 70,000 participants, the diplomat, special envoy for the climate of the United Arab Emirates and former Emirati ambassador to Spain, defends Al-Jaber’s strategy: a summit focused on business sector, leaving a large place for oil companies.
L’Express: COP28 must open with the global assessment of COP21, but what we see today is that we are not at all on the right path to achieve the Paris objectives…Is it still realistic to hope to reverse the trend when we see that investments in oil projects continue?
Majid al-Suwaidi: We know we are not on track to meet these goals, and we must do everything we can to get back on track. The global assessment from COP21 in Paris shows us this and should clearly guide us on how to proceed to find these trajectories. This is why we have identified four pillars for success.
First, we must accelerate the energy transition. This means that we must decarbonize the energy system we have today while developing the energies of the future as quickly as possible. This is why we want to triple renewable energy production capacities by 2030, alongside a doubling of energy efficiency and hydrogen capacities. We must communicate about what we can offer people rather than what we take away from them.
Next, we need to address the funding issues. During our meetings around the world, we heard that financing for this transition was not available to emerging countries. How can we ensure this funding reaches those who need it most? The developed countries have not yet paid the 100 billion that they promised fourteen years ago, this must finally happen. But for this to happen, we must see a transformation of international financial institutions, multilateral development banks, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. We need replenishment of the Green Climate Fund and rapid contributions to the loss and damage fund. The central question of this COP is that of the transformation of international financial institutions to help them provide this capital. We know we need 2.4 to 4 trillion [milliards de milliards] dollars of investments. For this we also need the private sector, which must be present and up to the challenge. The dynamic must be global to stimulate the private sector.
The third pillar is to make these transformations visible in people’s lives. Which means that all these initiatives must be relevant on the ground. For farmers, industrial workers, the middle classes faced with the climate-related health crisis… And we can only do this on the basis of our fourth pillar which is that of inclusiveness. This is why we have a youth representative and why we are talking with indigenous peoples, NGOs and civil society to make sure everyone is there. Just like the bosses of industries and businesses. Everyone must come and show how they can provide solutions, because that is the only way to meet this immense challenge.
Why do you think it was so difficult to implement the Paris Agreement?
There is a lack of trust. We really noticed this as we met and talked this year. One of the main factors was the financial issue, namely the $100 billion that was promised and never materialized. This is why, as soon as we took office, we said that we must achieve this objective. But we know that hundreds of billions are not enough. We need to go from hundreds of billions to trillions. This is what we are trying to do by mobilizing the private sector. And we must create the incentives and opportunities that will allow them to do so. And I think that our COP will be able to meet these conditions.
What do you expect from the leading figures in the oil and gas industry? They are probably not all aligned on the same objectives…
Like all industries, the oil and gas industry faces different challenges, but we cannot continue on the same trajectory as we have for years while expecting a different result. This is why we need to talk to this industry. Find a way to involve her in the process, and show that she can be part of the solution. These companies must be able to come and explain how they will meet these challenges, what practical short-term measures they can take to help reduce excess greenhouse gas emissions. The sector has the skills, technologies and know-how to make the right choices. So let’s create a positive environment that he can enjoy. This requires establishing very ambitious transition criteria. Our president, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, has made it clear that he knows the sector and is therefore in a position to know what to expect from it.
In fact, this is the first time that a business leader has chaired a COP, and it is also the CEO of an oil company. Some denounce a conflict of interest…
Can I ask you a question ? Don’t you think this is true for every COP presidency? If he is a political leader, is he not also subject to external pressure? Likewise for academics, don’t they also have pressures or factors that motivate them to act in one direction or another? I think it is important to understand the background of our president. He comes from the renewable energy sector, he founded Masdar, our renewable energy company, which is today one of the global companies investing the most in this sector. He was our special envoy for climate change twice and attended numerous COPs. He understands the climate process perfectly. All of this did not make him an obvious choice to become the CEO of our national oil company. But his ability to lead, his vision and his desire to develop our country sustainably and diversify have led him to have this mandate to transform, decarbonize and prepare ADNOC for the future.
Our national model is therefore exactly what this process wants to see: a just transition for people working in the fossil fuel sectors, with new jobs and new opportunities while reducing our dependence on these sectors. Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber has the advantage of reconciling the two worlds: he was a diplomat, he participated in COP21 in Paris, he understands how these summits work and knows how to obtain consensus, but he also has a businessman mentality. A necessary quality to successfully achieve our objectives.
By increasing its production capacities, part of the oil world says it is responding to demand from emerging countries. How to get out of this dilemma?
I think this is an important discussion, but, as is often the case, there is no silver bullet. So we have to think practically, because it’s both a question of supply and demand. We need to tackle these two problems in parallel. We know that, even in our neutrality targets for 2050, fossil fuels will be part of the energy mix. Science tells us that we can achieve our 1.5°C targets while having an appropriate energy mix. Of course, we want to move from these high-carbon sources to low-carbon sources. This is why we must fight against methane, which is a real problem for the climate and which can be solved very easily today with very rapid effects. This should be a real priority.
But how can we ask people to make choices, to have clean energy if they don’t have access to it or if they don’t have the opportunity to make these virtuous choices? We must scale up and accelerate the development of clean energy systems as quickly as possible. And we need to do it at scale. I think this is a pragmatic way to achieve our goals.
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