In early August, Ukraine surprisingly entered the Russian region of Kursk.
The offensive has been described as a great success – but could also be a setback.
– The more threatening the situation seems, the more the Russians will stand with the statesays the analyst Tatyana Stanovaya to the Kyiv Independent.
The war in Ukraine, which has increasingly moved towards a war of attrition, took an unexpected turn at the beginning of August. The Ukrainian forces pushed several kilometers into Russia and managed to take control of several communities.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described the move as a way to “move the war into the territory of the aggressor”.
Zelenskyj: Wants to create a buffer zone
Ukraine has announced that it has no intention of keeping the areas it captured in Kursk. It has been speculated from several different quarters what different motives Ukraine had behind the offensive.
One of the explanations is believed to be that they wanted to raise morale with a success, but also show their partners that it is still possible to cross Russia’s “red lines”. Among other things in the hope that several Western countries would drop their restrictions on weapons that could have struck deep into Russia.
Another hope was that Russia would move forces from eastern Ukraine, where progress is slow. At the end of August, President Zelenskyy gave another explanation for the surprise offensive.
– To create a buffer zone on the aggressor’s territory, Zelenskyy said in a speech at the end of August.
The analyst: May increase support for Putin
Although the offensive, which Russia has somewhat pushed back against, is seen as a major success in Ukraine, it could have a negative effect as well.
Tatyana Stanovaya who is an analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center says to the Kyiv Independent that the offensive, which would be a thorn in the side of the Kremlin, could give more strength to the support for the war in Russia.
– The logic of trying to target Russian society and make life unbearable in order to turn Russians against the Kremlin is wrong. The more threatening the situation seems, the more the Russians will stand with the state, says Stanovaya.
In a report, Stanovaya writes that the most significant results of the Kursk offensive may be that the anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western currents in Russia strengthen and that support for President Putin increases. Several people in the Russian border regions also testify to the Kyiv Independent about increased anger towards Ukraine and greater support for the war.