The rise in unemployment is confirmed in France: the number of job seekers registered with France Work increased by 3.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter, the strongest rise in unemployment in France (excluding Mayotte) in a decade outside the Covid crisis, according to figures published this Monday, January 27 by the Ministry of Labor. Among young people under 25, the increase reached 8.5% over the quarter in mainland France, specifies the ministry’s studies department (Dares), against a backdrop of a drop in hiring and an increase in business bankruptcies.
Throughout France, the number of category A unemployed reached 3.138 million in the 4th quarter, or 117,000 more unemployed over one quarter. Part of this increase (+36,000) is however due to the shift of job seekers from category B or C – reduced activity – to category A. By including reduced activity (Categories A, B and C), the number of job seekers increased by 1.7% to 5.495 million over the quarter, and by 1.8% over one year.
A sign that the turnaround in the job market is recent: the increase in unemployment for categories A, B and C is greater for those registered with France Travail for less than a year (+2.3% in mainland France) and even for less than three months (2.8%) than for those already unemployed for more than a year (+1.1%).
“It’s very bad”
The main economic organizations expect an increase in unemployment in 2025. In its latest economic report in mid-December, INSEE estimated that the unemployment rate (measured according to the ILO and allowing international comparisons) should increase from 7.4% currently to 7.6% of the working population by mid-2025. The fourth quarter unemployment rate is due on February 11.
The figures for the fourth quarter mark “a real break: we didn’t expect it to be good, but this is very bad”, reacted for AFP Mathieu Plane, deputy director of the Analysis and Forecasting department at the OFCE. “There is an increase in bankruptcies” and also “the budgetary adjustment which is expected with a lot of uncertainty, which has been reinforced by censorship”, with companies anticipating the end or reduction of certain aid, as on the learning, adds the economist.
While the strength of the labor market had surprised economists since the Covid crisis and many companies were struggling to hire, Urssaf reported last week that hiring declarations had started to decline again in the fourth quarter, losing 2.4% compared to the previous quarter.