The results of the French vote should allow new parliamentary balances of power to emerge. Then a new government. What do the latest estimates project?
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The results of these 2024 legislative elections and the effects they will produce are undoubtedly the most uncertain in the history of the Fifth Republic. No political party or alliance can know today who will be victorious on July 7. At this stage, nothing is decided, we will have to wait for the results of the votes of this 2nd round, but elements already allow us to have an idea of the future composition of the National Assembly.
There are of course the polls, which again this week, before the end of the second round campaign, made projections by seat. But the institutes have difficulty giving estimates for the 577 constituencies in France, with a panel of 2,000 or 3,000 people. And these polls do not give figures on the results in the legislative elections by political party. How many seats for LFI, for the PS, for the RN allied with the RN? To go into this level of detail, it is actually necessary to do meticulous work of electoral sociology by territory.
Once this typology has been carried out, the pollsters can propose a projection model based on previous votes and the most recent polling data. The result? We obtain estimates of the number of seats obtained by party based on several scenarios: hypotheses favorable to the left, the center or the RN; a scenario based on a systematic blockade of the extreme right with the withdrawal of the 3rd in the event of a three-way race. The pollsters then find the model that seems to them to be the most balanced.
Here are the estimates given last Friday, carried out by Le Grand Continent, which looked at the balance of power by constituency, electoral sociology and calculations of probable vote transfer for each election, modelled by the pollster Cluster 17 for the exercise: