Among the hackneyed clichés that populate public debate, the one according to which demography is the power of nations, and therefore the history of the world, is making a comeback. This vision is carried with evil joy by those, numerous, who rely on the weak demographic dynamics of liberal democracies to predict the decline of the West, even its collapse. Ideology rarely concerns itself with reality, so let’s try to put facts and order back, to explain what it really is.
First, let’s look at the photograph of the world population. India is the most populous country on the planet. However, no one can argue without further ado that this country would be more powerful than China, the European Union or the United States. In addition, among the ten most populous countries in the world, we find Pakistan, Nigeria and Bangladesh, three countries certainly experiencing economic growth but mired in governance, environmental and security problems which prevent them from having an influence equivalent to those of “small countries” like the United Kingdom or France. As for Russia, it is well known that this country of 146 million inhabitants has not been able, in two years, to conquer its Ukrainian neighbor with 41 million inhabitants.
South Korea, less powerful than Nigeria?
In 2050, Nigeria, with 400 million inhabitants, will have overtaken the United States. Bangladesh, with almost 200 million inhabitants, will weigh twice as much as Germany, the most populous country in the EU. At the other end of the spectrum, South Korea has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world: less than 1 child per woman. As a result, its population, of 52 million people today, will drop to 46 million in 2050. Does this mean that Korea will have less capacity to act on world affairs than Nigeria? This is far from obvious.
Power is a protean concept. In his famous analysis published in 1948, Politics between nations: The struggle for power and peace, the theorist of international relations Hans Morgenthau associated many factors other than demography with it: geographical position – and in particular proximity to the seas –, the abundance of natural resources, military investments, political stability and the competence of governments, the quality of diplomacy, lucidity of public opinions… Today we would add the mastery of technological innovations in digital technology and artificial intelligence.
It only takes one or two of these criteria to be absent for power to collapse. Nigeria has a maritime coastline, considerable resources – oil, gas, coal, minerals – and a dynamic demographics. But the country’s political instability and poor governance, undermined by corruption, are ruining its ability to exercise its power, which remains virtual. Conversely, Korean democracy, very technological and militarized, plays a major role on the Asian geopolitical scene, offering, with Japan, a counterweight to Chinese hegemony and its North Korean ally.
Europe must relearn how to be respected
More than demographics or geographical position, today it is the mastery of technology and military capacity that create power. This is what the Americans have perfectly understood and this is what should be the matrix of the debate prior to the European elections. In this global geopolitical jungle that has become hostile, Europe must relearn the criteria of power. Even more, she must relearn how to be respected by the rest of the world.
This ambition requires massive investments in our universities, our innovation centers, our armies. No more pacifism, less regulation, more intelligence, technology and deterrence: this is more than enough to compensate for our demographic setbacks and make history, at a time when a growing part of the world, struggling with dictatorships more or less less accomplished, needs Europe more than ever.
Nicolas Bouzou, economist and essayist, is director of the consulting firm Astères
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