To know the future fashionable first names, some rely on the rule of 100. Two first names for girls and boys seem to meet this calculation. Explanations.
Each year, specialized works such as the Official First Names or INSEE data provides an estimate of the most popular first names and makes it possible to determine those which have been given the most depending on the year. But how can we accurately predict what will be the most trendy first names in the coming years? A simple calculation would allow us to know the first names of tomorrow: this is the rule of 100. But what is it exactly and can we really trust it?
What is the rule of 100?
According to Sophie Kihm, first name expert and editor-in-chief of the Nameberry website, “It takes on average a century for a first name to experience its full cycle of popularity“. We must take into account the moment when this first name rises to the top of the ranking of the most popular first names, until the moment when its rating declines, until it is really very little attributed. Thus, “once a first name is in decline, we expect it to follow the 100 year rule. First names take around 100 years to come back into fashion. This means that names from the great-grandparent generation are starting to trend again. This means that right now, it’s the names from the 1920s that are popular, but in a few years, it will be the turn of the most popular names from the 1930s.” estimates the specialist.
What will be the trending first names in 2024 according to the rule of 100?
- Married
- Jeans
- Andrew
- Rock
- Rein
- Jane
- Roger
- Marcel
- Robert
- Louis
If old first names are increasingly trendy, like the first names Louis, Marcel or George for boys, or even Suzanne and Jeanne for girls… Still, the 2024 trends do not seem to quite meet the rule of 100 (except for first name Jeanne as well as Louis among boys, which we find both in the 2024 trends and among the most worn in 1924).
According to the Official First Names, the most fashionable first names for girls next year will be Alba, Louise, Jeanne, Ambre, Emma, Romy, Rose, Anna, Alice, Mia, Lena, Lou… Among the old first names for little boys who are coming back to the forefront, we find the first name Louis in 6th position (also very popular in 1924). The first name Gabin in the top 20 male first names according to the Official First Names was only assigned 11 times in 1924, while the first name Léon (assigned 2,425 births in 1924) is not really part of the ranking of first names. the most trendy.
The most common first names in 1930 (which could come back into fashion in 2030)
If we are to believe the rule of 100, the first names most assigned in 1930 should therefore be part of the new trends in 2030. Here are the top 10 top first names of 1930:
- Jean: 33,849 births in 1930
- Marie: 27,774 births
- André: 17,072 births
- Pierre: 16,475 births
- René: 13,305 births
- Michel: 12,703 births
- Roger: 12,514 births
- Jacqueline: 11,450 births
- Jacques: 11,319 births
- Jeannine: 10,995 births