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According to the United Nations, we are now 8 billion human beings on the surface of the earth. A figure that is expected to increase for a few more decades. Until what point ?
eight billion. This is the number of human beings who have lived together on earth since November 15, according to United Nations forecasts. “A chance to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at the advances in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates”, reacted this summer the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres. But beyond this impressive figure, what does this development mean?
A steady increase in population
First demographic observation established by the specialists: the overall trend is on the rise. There were 2.5 billion humans in 1950, 4 in 1974, 6 in 1999, 7 in 2011 and 8 today. That is a tripling in seventy years. In the longer term, the world population is expected to peak at around 10.4 billion in the 2080s, predicts the United Nations.
But a declining birth rate
However, the fertility rate (number of children per woman) would be falling: 2.3 children per woman. With a disparity on the territories: thus in the industrialized countries, in the European Union for example, the average now stands at 1.59 children per woman, below the replacement threshold of 2.1. A trend that is also asserting itself in other southern countries such as the countries of Asia and Latin America.
However, the population is still on the rise, with many regions experiencing a fertility rate higher than 2.5 children per woman, such as the Middle East, India, or all of Africa. In terms of population, India should logically overtake China in 2023.
What projection in 2100?
On this point, scientists do not all agree. The UN predicts that we will reach a peak of 10.4 billion people in 2086, before a leveling off until 2100 with declining fertility for all and therefore a decreasing population then. For American researchers from the Institute for Health Sciences and Evaluation, the population peak would be reached much earlier, from 2064, at 9.73 billion people. Then, the curve evolves gently to reach 8.7 billion humans at the end of the century, with of course, a possible margin of error according to the evolution of fertility. The UN estimates that there is a 95% chance that we will be between 8.9 and 12.4 billion inhabitants in 2100.
In France, we live more numerous and older
On the French side, it is INSEE that allows us to see things a little more clearly and to project ourselves into the populations of tomorrow on our soil. And the trend is towards an ever longer life expectancy. According to the central scenario of population projections, which extends recent trends, girls born in 2022 would live on average 93 years and boys 90 years. Women and men aged 65 in 2022 would live on average a little shorter: up to 89 and 86 years respectively.
The probability of reaching the age of 65 has increased very sharply. Only 81% of women and 69% of men born in 1940 reached the age of 65, but this should be the case for 91% of women and 84% of men born in 1970 and almost all new-borns. born in 2022. Finally, 6% of women and 2% of men born in 1940 could become centenarians.