Ukraine’s latest counterattack was long awaited. Now it continues for the second month, especially in the southern parts of the country, but progress on the front has been remarkably slow.
– The slowness of the progress of Ukraine’s counterattack has been surprising. The reason is Russia’s six months of preparation. The defense arrangements are strong, says the lieutenant colonel (EVP) Jarmo Nieminen To .
Non-fiction writer Nieminen analyzes the course of the war on the Ukrainian war website he maintains on Facebook.
Especially in the south, in the Zaporizhia region, the Ukrainian troops are facing difficult terrain, heavy mining and Russian air superiority in the occupied areas.
According to Nieminen, Ukraine is currently using intimidation tactics in its attack. Ukraine has managed to recapture several small population centers, but the front lines have not moved more than a few kilometers.
– The tactic is justified by the fact that Russia’s reserves can be used up. That is also true, but as time goes by, your own losses also increase in the same proportion, says Nieminen.
On the map below, by moving the cursor, you can see how little Ukraine has progressed in its eastern counterattack zone in Bahmut.
Western arms assistance is essential
On Tuesday morning, a fire broke out at a Russian military base in Crimea, according to the occupation regime, and the sounds of explosions were also reported. Ukraine is probably trying to make it difficult for the Russian troops to be supplied by carrying out attacks behind the front line in Crimea as well.
Ukraine’s counter-offensive is progressing pretty much as it was expected in advance: slowly and heavily, says the research director of the Estonian Defense Research Center ICDS, a Lithuanian Tomas Jermalavičius.
– We already knew in advance that a counterattack would require losses and take time. But the Ukrainians have a clear plan, he says.
The plan includes tiring out the enemy and damaging supply lines, where according to Jermalavičius, Ukraine has had success.
According to the research director, the slow progress is also influenced by the fact that the West has been slow in increasing arms aid. The support of the West in the counterattack is absolutely important for Ukraine.
– The Ukrainians say they need three things: ammunition, ammunition and ammunition.
According to Jermalavičius, Ukraine also needs, for example, demining equipment. Last weekend, after its president’s visit to Kiev, South Korea promised Ukraine help in demining.
– These are not as spectacular as the Leopard or Bradley tanks, but they are extremely necessary, says Jermalavičius.
Both experts interviewed by believe that the F-16 fighter jets – the donation of which the United States has recently made possible – would greatly help in the progress of the counterattack.
– It can really give Ukraine the impetus to make a breakthrough attack in the direction of Berdjansk, Melitopol or Mariupol, says Jarmo Nieminen.
On the map below, by moving the cursor, you can see how little Ukraine has progressed in its southern counterattack zone in Robotyne.
Russia is gathering its forces in the northeast
While the Ukrainian counter-offensive is slowly progressing in the south, southeast and east, Russia appears to be concentrating forces in the northeastern parts of Ukraine.
A larger attack from the direction of Kupyansk and Lyman would tie the Ukrainian forces away from their own counterattack.
– The Russians are either trying to mislead the Ukrainians or force them to move their reserves to defend the northeastern parts of the country, says Jermalavičius.
Jarmo Nieminen says he is worried about these troops, who have been in training and maintenance in Russia and Belarus over the winter.
– It is a threat that the military leadership of Ukraine now has to take into account.
“Ukraine applies bankruptcy tactics to Russia”
According to Nieminen, training the Ukrainian troops and general staff officers is a significant challenge, which should have more time.
– Education is perhaps the Achilles’ heel that Ukraine has had throughout the war. It doesn’t help that you only get really cool tanks. You have to know how to use them operationally, he says.
According to him, the military leadership of Ukraine should have the ability to combine different types of weapons in one battle, so that the counterattack would bring results.
– That [kykyä] At least based on the evidence, Ukraine doesn’t really have it.
In Nieminen’s opinion, the situation in Ukraine is still not at all hopeless. However, according to him, forecasting is impossible, because the strategic pattern of the situation is so complex.
– It is not excluded that this will take a really long time. The previous war year showed that autumn battles are more than difficult when the steppes do not support armored vehicles.
On the map below, you can see by moving the cursor how little Ukraine has progressed in its counterattack area in the southern parts of the Donetsk region.
Jermalavičius, on the other hand, believes that Ukraine’s nagging tactics will bear fruit in the coming months.
– In defense circles, we joke that Ukraine applies bankruptcy tactics to Russia. At first, the bankruptcy progresses very slowly, but then it happens very suddenly. We expect such a situation for the Russian troops before the end of the year and the weather worsens, he says.
– At some point, the Russian front line collapses. Ukraine will be able to take advantage of this and make significant progress.
Will the West’s nerves hold?
In the West, we have to wait calmly for the results of Ukraine’s counterattack and continue to support Ukraine in the meantime, says Jermalavičius.
According to him, in the past, the West has mainly reacted to Ukraine’s needs with its military aid, instead of anticipating future needs. According to Jermalavičius, the promise of continuous support given by the G7 countries in connection with the NATO summit in Vilnius is very significant.
– The stream of aid is becoming a tidal wave that will not dry up. It shows that we are ready to support Ukraine longer than what Putin’s the administration is able to endure.
However, Russia has considerable reserves. Jermalavičius reminds us that even if Ukraine’s counterattack succeeds now, another counterattack will be needed later, and maybe another one after that.
– We should not let short-term frustration and pessimism prevent us from seeing the bigger picture. There is only a small chance that Russia would win the war. The question is not whether Ukraine will achieve its goals, but how long it will take.
However, the volatility of support from Western societies and political instability create a challenge for Ukraine. Jermalavičius refers, among other things, to populist movements in Europe and Donald Trump’s for a possible return to the United States.
– The social and political sustainability of the West is a greater risk for Ukraine than anything Russia can strike with.
The topic can be discussed until 23:00 on July 20.