the major issues of early legislative elections – L’Express

Announced victory for the right, strong progress for the populists… In Portugal, the early legislative elections this Sunday, March 10, promise to be unprecedented for this traditionally moderate country. The Socialists hope, through this election, to make a new start after the resignation of the outgoing Prime Minister, Antonio Costa, cited in an investigation for influence peddling last November. The Socialist Party has since rallied around Pedro Nuno Santos, a 46-year-old former minister from the left wing of the movement.

However, on the eve of the vote, the latest polls do not seem favorable to him. Radio Renascença credits the PS with 27.9% of voting intentions, compared to 32.6% for the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by parliamentarian Luis Montenegro. The latter called on voters to “reverse the course of the country” by posing as the only candidate capable of “uniting Portugal”. Until then, his party had 77 seats in Parliament, compared to 120 for the PS.

These two parties are closely followed by the populists of Chega (“That’s enough”, in French) who, since the founding of the movement in 2019, have continued to grow in the polls. This March 10, the young far-right party could confirm its status as the third political force in the country, with 16.8% of the expected votes. A significant rise with such a result which, if confirmed, would double the party’s score compared to the previous legislative elections of 2022 (7.2%).

Main selling point for Chega: its leader, André Ventura, professor of law and commentator of football or news items on television sets. At 41, he triumphs on social networks, where he has more subscribers than all the other parties combined. “André Ventura (186,000 subscribers) and [sa collègue députée] Rita Matias (32,000) are far ahead of their political competitors on TikTok, having recorded significant growth over the last six months – 58% and 14% respectively. reports the Portuguese weekly Visão.

Zemmour the Portuguese way

Riding on the disappointments of the Costa era, mired in an inflationary spiral, rising unemployment and corruption scandals, the anti-system candidate is sparing no means. André Ventura thus spoke out in favor of the castration of pedophiles, but also the removal of the ovaries of women who wish to have an abortion. He was also in favor of eliminating subsidies to associations fighting against domestic violence.

Furthermore, like Eric Zemmour, André Ventura draws on “the themes of law, order, the defense of the police against petty crime, the amalgamation, also, between HLM housing projects and violence”, political scientist António Costa Pinto, professor at the University of Lisbon, told L’Express in 2022.

On his campaign poster for the 2024 election, André Ventura appears all smiles alongside Portuguese politicians, deemed corrupt and crossed out with a red cross. “Portugal needs a clean-up”, we can read in capital letters. The message is clear, as are his ambitions: to acquire a significant place within the new government.

Based on the polls, a coalition between the center-right and the populists seems to be the most likely scenario. “The risk is that the AD […] cannot have an absolute majority, even with the help of a liberal right party. To form a government and have stability in the Assembly, it would therefore be necessary for the traditional right to ally with the extreme right”, supposes Victor Pereira, professor of history at the University of Lisbon, with RFI.

An alliance that Luis Montenegro has always limited himself to refusing. “Não é não!” (“No means no”), he repeats over and over again. At the risk of finding yourself in an impasse at the end of the vote.