During the three free decades in Estonia, there has not been a single government that has held power for an entire election period. There has always been such a fierce dispute that it has dissolved the government in the middle of the season. It hasn’t known new elections, but the foundations of the government have changed.
The parties preparing for the parliamentary or Riigikogu elections at the beginning of March are well aware that this time too, portfolios will hardly be distributed for longer than half of the election period. There are no close friends among the parties.
The board last changed in the summer. Prime minister of the right-wing reform party Kaja Kallasen the center party was replaced by the social democrats and Isänmaa. In practice, the solution was dictated by the conservative Isänmaa party, which could afford to choose either reform and social democrats or becoming a partner of the ultra-nationalist EKRE in addition to the center.
The government fell apart in disputes over raising child allowances and reforming early childhood education. In reality, the background was a lot of ballast accumulated over the years and the pain of the center because its support was in a sharp decline in opinion polls and the rise of reform.
In the next government, only Kallas can be sure of his portfolio. Based on opinion polls, about 30 percent of the electorate now support the reform. Kallas is the party’s absolute number one.
Late last year, his outspokenness against Russia’s war in Ukraine made him a respected international Politico magazine (you will switch to another service) to the list of the most prominent politicians, as one of the “factors”. Commissioned by Estonian Public Radio ERR research (you switch to another service) recently showed that the same is thought in the home country.
When Estonians were asked who they would like to be the next prime minister, Kallas was not only the number one favorite of Reform Party supporters. He was also number one for the supporters of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Eesti 200 party, not the chairmen of their own parties.
The linguistic division of Estonia and the question that always lives in the background of the elections is well illustrated by the opinion of non-Estonian speakers. Of them, mainly Russian speakers, only ten percent hope Kallas will continue as prime minister. Four times as many would like the center party to get the prime minister’s portfolio Jüri Ratas.
In addition to Reform’s position as prime minister, it is certain that the conservative People’s Party EKRE will not be seen in the government, unless it unexpectedly gets more votes than the Reform Party. Reformi, the Social Democrats, Estonia 200 and the Greens have announced that the differences of opinion with EKRE are so great that it still does not qualify as a government partner.
In the 2019 elections, votes and seats were distributed as follows:
The Estonian 200 party did not cross the vote threshold, but now opinion polls predict it will win 11 seats in the 101-seat Riigikogu. In their opinion, Estonia 200 is the closest to reform on the party map.
The wavering support of the parties shows according to the latest surveys (you will switch to another service) being established as the elections approach. Based on the most recent survey, reformi would get 35 representatives in the Riigikogu, EKRE 22, the center 20, the Social Democrats 7 and Isänmaa 6.
The vote threshold will turn out to be too high for the Greens, the United Left Party, the new Right-wing Party, which is aspiring to the Riigikogu for the first time, and the individual candidates who are trying on their own.
In their election promises, the parties are ready to invest significantly more in, for example, teachers’ salaries and pensions and services for the elderly, as well as roads and railways. The total sum of the promises is huge in a country that is hit by inflation worse than EU countries on average.
Young people’s rejection of the teaching profession is one of the themes of the moment. In election programs, salary increases are presented as the best medicine for increasing appreciation. The average salary of an Estonian is currently 1,700 euros. The average salary of a teacher is 12 percent higher. The parties would increase the difference to 20–30 percent.
Pensioners, on the other hand, are promised an increase of at least 400 euros to the current pension of 600 euros during the election period.
On the revenue side of the budget, the candidates talk much more comprehensively. Even though a balanced budget is on the program of all parties, avoiding the national debt seems to be no longer quite the threshold issue for them.
Of course, there are also nuances in the economic policy of the parties, for example in the approach to the progressiveness of taxation. That is what Estonia started implementing in practice in 2018, although in principle the former flat tax of 20 percent is the basis.
Reformi and Estonia 200, the most likely government partners, would like to restore the flat tax in practice as well. The social democrats would keep the current system slightly modified, and Isänmaa would tie progressivity to the taxpayer’s number of children.
The number one item on Estonia’s election programs is security policy – despite the fact that it is difficult to get a debate going, as the parties are rarely unanimous in the current situation in Europe. The election programs also have in common the fact that they contain very little foreign policy other than defense issues.
The defense budget is being strengthened vigorously, for the first time quietly. Already in the fall, there was a consensus that two percent of the national product is not enough, three is needed, and not all parties have made that a ceiling either.
With the increased budget, the parties want to acquire tanks, airplanes, air, anti-tank and coastal defense systems and more people for the armed forces. At the same time, citizens’ will to defend the country and investing in it are also discussed, even as a compulsory subject in schools.
“There are so many defense political promises that I wonder when we will start talking about four percent to fulfill them. The Social Democrats already promised 3.5 percent and Isänmaa as much as necessary. “
Erkki Koort, director of the Estonian Internal Security Institute, in an interview with ERR
The expansion of the Nursipalu military training area in southern Estonia to three times the current 3,300 hectares has caused ripples in the defense political election debate. About twenty farms with houses and fields are left, which has sparked protests.
The parties agree on the need for a larger practice field in the current world situation, but the government has been criticized for the delay on the one hand, and for the fact that the matter has been brought up to the residents in a rambling manner.
From a member of parliament of the Social Democrats Raimond from Kaljulaid came the fierce response to the critics In ERR’s election debate (you switch to another service). According to him, some politicians have tried to score points during the elections by presenting absurd lies about the defense forces. That’s how they were put into their heads from across the border, Kaljulaid hinted.
It might be the first taste of the intensification of the fighting in the last weeks of the election campaign. Estonian election campaigns have never spared words about rivals. Chairman of the new economic liberal Oikeistolaiset party Lavly Pearling opened the party’s campaign by suggesting that the other parties had lost their minds.
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