Emmanuel Macron recently made it known that he wanted a Prime Minister “who has no ambitions, especially for 2027”. Now only a few names make up the short list for Matignon.
Emmanuel Macron could appoint the new Prime Minister earlier than expected. Between the end of the Olympic Games, on August 11, and August 15, according to information from Le Parisien. A second source tells the media that the announcement will be made “around August 15”, potentially just after the Council of Ministers on August 12. One thing is certain, the next tenant of Matignon will have to present a profile “that has no ambitions, especially for 2027”, still according to the media.
If the head of state wants to appoint to Matignon the head of a coalition government, with majority support in the National Assembly, several names have come up insistently in recent days. First, the president of the Hauts-de-France region, Xavier Bertrand. He is even supported by several figures from the center and the right. “He is a great republican among the Republicans and a great regional president” declared Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, resigning Secretary of State for the City, on July 30. The resigning Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin spoke of “a politician with very great competence”, he could “greatly serve France”, a day earlier.
The President of the Republic is consulting at least on a second name for the post of Prime Minister, it is Bernard Cazeneuve. The former tenant of Matignon under François Hollande remains however much less publicized than Xavier Bertrand, and much more discreet about his new political aspirations. Finally, the track leading to Lucie Castets, proposed by the New Popular Front to Emmanuel Macron has never been so glacial. The head of state would have even judged her candidacy as an “extravagant” scenario according to Le Parisien.
A coalition prime minister: hypothesis number one
The left being the majority group in the National Assembly, it could shelter the future Prime Minister, but if a coalition were to emerge and become the largest group in terms of the number of elected representatives, it would become a breeding ground for potential heads of government. And a coalition would have the advantage of strengthening the Prime Minister by making his ouster by a motion of censure more difficult, but still possible as long as 289 deputies are not united in the alliance. Several coalition scenarios are on the table.
A coalition between Ensemble and Les Républicains, with Xavier Bertrand?
The presidential camp at the head of the Ensemble coalition has 168 deputies while the right has 60, the two united groups would therefore have nearly 230 deputies and become the majority. The two political parties have already agreed on several projects since the re-election of Emmanuel Macron in 2022 and have made it possible to pass laws despite the relative majority of the presidential camp. A coalition therefore seemed possible, in particular thanks to Édouard Philippe, capable of bridging the gap between Macronism and the right. In addition, the presidential camp and the right have allied themselves for the election of Yaël Braun-Pivet to the rostrum. If such a coalition were to emerge, the Prime Minister could come from the Macronist camp, more particularly from the right wing, but also from a center-right party like Horizon or from the moderate right. The Republicans would set as a condition for a coalition the appointment of a right-wing Prime Minister without giving a name. In addition, according to the Elysée, the personality sought must also give off “a scent of cohabitation”, another good point for LR.
On the right, one name keeps coming up, that of Xavier Bertrand. A hypothesis that is not so far-fetched, particularly with a view to an alliance between the Macron camp and LR. The president of the Hauts-de-France region, for his part, could be the “consensual” element sought by the head of state. “He is a great republican among the Republicans and a great regional president” declared on this subject Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, resigning Secretary of State for the City, in La Grande Interview, Tuesday July 30 on CNews on the subject of a potential right-wing government. The day before, on France 2, the Bertrand case was already acclaimed by the resigning Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, close to Xavier Bertrand. “He is a politician with great competence”, he could “greatly serve France”. “I have my friends, but I am not the President of the Republic” indicated the number 3 of the resigning government on France 2. He “could be the man for the job” a minister said. PoliticoWednesday July 31. On Thursday August 1, another minister indicated to Politico that the appointment of Xavier Bertrand to Matignon would allow “pressure to be put on Wauquiez” or at least, would force the leader of the LR in the National Assembly to “come and discuss, really” with the central bloc. There would even be discussions between the Elysée and the future ex-president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, on the subject of the latter’s entry into the government, within an executive alliance between The Republican Right And Together. Enough to revive the rumor of a coalition between Ensemble and Les Républicains (excluding Ciotti).
A coalition between the New Popular Front and Ensemble
The presidential camp or its left wing could also move closer to the left on condition that LFI, which is part of the New Popular Front, is excluded from the coalition. A condition currently refused by a part of the left that is reluctant to join the presidential camp. This option has nevertheless moved away after the re-election of Yaël Braun-Pivet to the rostrum.
A coalition ranging from the social-democratic left to the republican right, with Bernard Cazeneuve?
This is a scenario that the presidential camp and Emmanuel Macron are calling for in a letter addressed to the French people on July 10, but which seems difficult to envisage given the programmatic differences between the left and the right despite points of agreement. On Sunday, July 28, 2024, a minister defended to Politico “a coalition” ranging from the French Communist Party (PCF) to the Republicans, excluding Ciotti. A will assumed, even if “it will take time” because according to him, everyone is “in the digestion phase” since the shock announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron. On the other hand, this same minister quickly dismissed the hypothesis of a Prime Minister from the Macron camp. For him, “it would make no sense, we would do with 200, what we failed to do with 250” in the current configuration of the lower house of Parliament, he confided to Politico.
This is why the trail leading to Bernard Cazeneuve, revealed by Le Parisien on Sunday, August 4, could hold the rope. From the fort of Brégançon, the President of the Republic is consulting on at least a second name for the post of Prime Minister, besides Xavier Bertrand, it is Bernard Cazeneuve. The former tenant of Matignon under François Hollande remains however much less publicized than Xavier Bertrand, and much more discreet about his new political aspirations. However, according to information from Le Parisien, the latter recently spoke with the head of state “whom he had already seen discreetly at the Elysée in the spring (well before the dissolution). A profile that could quite satisfy the consensual dimension sought by Emmanuel Macron to replace Gabriel Attal, and forge new links with the left wing of Macronie.
The hypothesis of a left-wing Prime Minister buried?
The New Popular Front has become the most powerful group in the National Assembly in the early legislative elections of 2024, even though it does not have a majority. Buoyed by the results of the vote, the union of the left demands to govern and urges Emmanuel Macron to appoint a Prime Minister from its ranks. But in reality, nothing obliges Emmanuel Macron to appoint a Prime Minister from the New Popular Front, not even the Constitution. He is the only one authorized to decide who he wants to send to Matignon in place of Gabriel Attal.
On the New Popular Front side, the choice fell on the 37-year-old senior civil servant, Lucie Castets.She was an advisor to Anne Hidalgo on the budget, in particular the finances dedicated to the ecological transition. Her action as director of the budget, finances and purchases of the capital, a position she has held since December 2023, is praised by the mayor of Paris. “She is sensitive to the general interest. I take on competent collaborators or directors. And who feel concerned. Lucie is one of them.”All the political parties of the agreement, La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, the Ecologists and the Communist Party assured their support for this “consensus” candidate, in a press release on July 23.On the other hand, Emmanuel Macron has already firmly indicated that she will not be appointed Prime Minister, like any other personality with the ambition of leading a left-wing government. The head of state has only one scenario in mind, that of appointing to Matignon the head of a coalition government, with majority support in the National Assembly.
But a left-wing Prime Minister, regardless of the party he comes from, will not be able to remain at the head of the government if he does not obtain the support of a majority extending beyond the New Popular Front. While some personalities call for opening up to the left wing of Macronie and up to the maximum center-left, others oppose a coalition like LFI or the head of the PS who call for majorities by projects. Not only refusing alliances, the New Popular Front could suffer from dissensions between its own members: LFI and the PS have already mutually accused each other of deliberately prolonging negotiations to weaken the alliance.
Barnier, Borloo, de Courson… The hypothesis of a technical Prime Minister
Without a majority and without a government agreement, another solution is to build a technical government led by a Prime Minister with little political influence and who can achieve consensus from the left to the right. The ministers would then be senior civil servants, economists, diplomats and specialists in each field rather than politicians. They would be responsible for running the country and its economy without introducing any major new measures or reforms while waiting for new legislative elections.
In this case, the appointment of a Prime Minister who is rather centrist or moderate on the left or right, and above all experienced in the role of “old sage”, holds the rope. Names like Dominique de Villepin Or Charles de Courson are good examples. There is also the possibility of an apolitical personality.
Wednesday July 31, our colleagues from Politico indicated that another option could attract Emmanuel Macron’s attention. One minister told them that a profile “retired from political life”, “in any case closer to the end than the beginning” of his career could hold the rope. He cited in particular former ministers from the Republican right: Michel Barnier Or Jean-Louis Borloo.
When will the Prime Minister be appointed?
Since Gabriel Attal’s resignation did not mean that his successor was immediately appointed, the Prime Minister will remain temporarily at the head of a resigning government to manage current affairs until the arrival of the new head of government and his ministers. This period could last as long as it takes to form a coalition or for Emmanuel Macron to think things over. Maintaining a resigning government until the end of the Paris Olympic Games seems possible, and preferable according to elected officials from the presidential camp. According to information from Le Parisien, the new Prime Minister should be appointed between the end of the Olympic Games, on August 11, and August 15. Perhaps after the Council of Ministers scheduled for August 12.
Others believe that the life span of the resigning government could go well beyond that: until the opening of the next ordinary session of the National Assembly, that is, until October 1. This hypothesis is raised by The world.