It is “remarkable” that the Wagner group has managed to get into Russia. Lieutenant Colonel Johan Huovinen thinks so.
– This is similar to a military coup where we see a parallel structure that was able to take over a leadership position for one of Russia’s most important military regions, says Huovinen.
Large parts of Russia’s war against Ukraine are directed from the building in Rostov-na-Donu, and Wagner taking it over could have “critical” consequences for Russia’s ability to defend itself against Ukraine’s counteroffensive, writes the think tank Institute for the study of war in an analysis.
Despite the fact that much is at stake for Russia, the Russian forces have acted relatively passively. Something Johan Huovinen says he is particularly struck by. How the Russian defense will now act will be decisive, says Huovinen.
– It is a critical situation for how to deal with this situation, says Huovinen.
“Russian forces are passive”
The British Ministry of Defense makes a similar analysis, they write in a status report that this is “the most significant challenge for the Russian state in the near term”.
The ministry writes that so far there is little evidence that armed battles took place between Russian forces and the Wagner group. Something that may indicate that some Russian forces did not oppose Wagner, but rather took a passive role as Wagner advanced on Russian soil.
– What is interesting here is the passivity of the rest of Russia’s armed forces. If you have gone into some kind of staff situation in several regions, then the Russian internal troops and also the Russian National Guard should be deployed rather than the Russian army. The Russian army should actually be used in this type of operation if it is not ordered directly from Putin, says lieutenant colonel Johan Huovinen.